Southwest MO Rush
ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU15 · 10 teams · Southwest MO Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Feb 20, 01:00 PM
Stryker Soccer Complex, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Southwest MO Rush | FC Wichita |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
FC Wichita average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Stryker Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Missouri Rush sit 5th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Missouri Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Wichita game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Southwest MO Rush – FC Wichita) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 15 – Sun Feb 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 2nd▲ up 4 | 2nd▲ up 4 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 2nd▲ up 4 | 2nd▲ up 4 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
10th▼ down 4 | 10th▼ down 4 | 10th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 11%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 10%
- 8th 9%
- 9th 9%
- 10th 9%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Wichita | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.45) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Kansas City Athletics | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Kansas City Surf | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Kansas Rush | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Missouri Rush | 0.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.37) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 6th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Feb 20 01:00 PM |
FC Wichita 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Stryker Soccer Complex · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 12:00 PM |
FC Wichita 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 PM |
St. Louis Stars SC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 2 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
Missouri Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 10:00 AM |
Toca Fusion Elite 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 2 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club Red 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 10:00 AM |
Union KC Soccer Club Navy 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 2 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Kansas City Surf 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 PM |
Missouri Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM |
St. Louis Stars SC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 12:00 PM |
Kansas City Athletics 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 2 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 02:00 PM |
Kansas Rush 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 2 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 03:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club Navy 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 12:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club Red 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Kansas Rush 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.45 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Wichita | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 vs Southwest MO Rush · Sat Feb 27 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Mar 6 vs Missouri Rush See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Kansas City Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Kansas Rush · Sat Dec 12 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Dec 13 vs Kansas City Surf See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Kansas City Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sun Dec 6 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Dec 12 at Kansas Rush See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Kansas Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Dec 12 vs Kansas City Surf · Sun Dec 13 vs Toca Fusion Elite See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Missouri Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Feb 27 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 6 at FC Wichita See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Southwest MO Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 at FC Wichita · Sat Feb 27 vs FC Wichita · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Louis Stars SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | St. Louis Stars SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Missouri Rush · Sat Feb 27 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 at Southwest MO Rush See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Toca Fusion Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sun Dec 6 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Dec 12 at Kansas City Athletics See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Dec 6 at Kansas City Surf · Sat Dec 12 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Union KC Soccer Club Red | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Kansas City Surf · Sun Dec 6 at Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Dec 12 at Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.