Coastal Rush
ECNL Regional League Boys · Gulf Coast BU16 · 8 teams · Coastal Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 8, 11:00 AM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.7 against · 1.08 expected points)
| Season so far | Coastal Rush | Union 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-3-4 | 5-1-6 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L W L | W L W L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Louisiana Fire SC | 4–1 vs Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers |
| Worst loss | 0–8 at LA Krewe Rush | 1–6 at LA Krewe Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.75 | -0.14 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.43 | +0.11 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 1–1 at Union 10 (D)
Common opponents: Louisiana Fire SC — we 3–0; they 1–2, 1–2. Gulf Coast United FC — we 1–0, 0–1; they 2–3, 2–1. LA Krewe Rush — we 0–5, 0–8; they 0–2, 1–6. Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 1–1, 2–2; they 4–2. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 1–0; they 1–0, 4–1. LA Elite SP — we 0–2; they 1–2, 1–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–5 vs LA Krewe Rush, 0–1 at Gulf Coast United FC, 0–2 at LA Elite SP, 0–8 at LA Krewe Rush.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 28%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Union 10 sit 4th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.20.A point moves us above Union 10 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Union 10 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Coastal Rush – Union 10) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.18 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.36 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.18 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.09 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 32%
- 6th 34%
- 7th 15%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.71 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Krewe Rush | 2.78 (+1.58) | 1st (2.70) | 27 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | LA Elite SP | 2.25 (+1.05) | 3rd (1.79) | 20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Gulf Coast United FC | 1.86 (+0.66) | 2nd (1.83) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Union 10 | 1.33 (+0.13) | 4th (1.38) | A point next game |
How the results connect
76 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Coastal Rush to Union 10 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.67 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 3 01:00 PM no score posted |
LA Elite SP 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home Ashton Brosnaham |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.85 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 10 11:00 AM no score posted |
Louisiana Fire SC 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -13 |
Away far trip
Matt Savoie Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 11 11:00 AM no score posted |
Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -19 |
Away far trip
Pelican Park Purple Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
1–0 | 1.87 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Union 10 4th · 5-1-6 · GD -3 |
Home Ashton Brosnaham |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.08 | 1.22 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LA Krewe Rush | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 46 | 6 | +40 | 25 | 2.78 | DWWWW | -0.62 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Gulf Coast United FC · Sun Mar 7 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 20 at LA Elite SP See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LA Elite SP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.35 | +0.04 | 96% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Mar 6 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Gulf Coast United FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 | 1.86 | WWWDL | -0.17 | -0.00 | 99% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 6 vs LA Krewe Rush · Sun Mar 7 vs LA Elite SP See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Union 10 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 16 | 1.33 | LLWLW | +0.11 | -0.59 | 65% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 at Coastal Rush See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Coastal Rush | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 12 | 1.20 | LWLDL | +0.43 | -0.67 | 19% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 10 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 11 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 | 1.14 | DLLLD | -0.12 | +0.23 | 14% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Gulf Coast United FC · Sat Oct 10 at Union 10 · Sat Mar 6 vs LA Elite SP See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Louisiana Fire SC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLLW | +0.82 | -0.54 | 7% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Mar 13 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.45 | +0.16 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Coastal Rush · Sat Mar 13 vs LA Elite SP · Sun Mar 14 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.66 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.