Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers
ECNL Regional League Boys · Gulf Coast BU14 · 8 teams · Mandeville Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 15, 01:00 PM
Pelican Park Purple Complex, Purple 3 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.2 for, 1.3 against · 2.80 expected points)
| Season so far | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | Union 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 1-0-10 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 0.27 |
| Goals for / game | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 4.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 3–2 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Coastal Rush | 0–9 at LA Krewe Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.09 | -2.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.31 | +0.73 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 5–2 at Union 10 (W)
Common opponents: Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 3–0; they 3–2. Gulf Coast United FC — we 4–2; they 2–3, 2–8. Coastal Rush — we 1–2; they 2–3. LA Krewe Rush — we 5–2; they 0–7, 0–9.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Union 10 average 1.4 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 4 of 11.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Union 10 concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–9 at LA Krewe Rush.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 92% chance; likely score 5–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Union 10 have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Union 10 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers – Union 10) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 3%
- 2nd 45%
- 3rd 32%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Elite SP | 3.00 (+0.60) | 3rd (1.94) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 2 | LA Krewe Rush | 2.67 (+0.27) | 1st (2.59) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
How the results connect
44 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers to Union 10 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.14 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 11 03:00 PM no score posted |
Coastal Rush 6th · 4-2-4 · GD -5 |
Home Pelican Park Purple Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.24 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
Union 10 7th · 1-0-10 · GD -37 |
Home Pelican Park Purple Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
5–1 | 2.80 | 2.43 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
LA Elite SP 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.65 | 2.34 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 03:00 PM |
Louisiana Fire SC 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +8 |
Home Pelican Park Purple Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–2 | 1.74 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 11:00 AM |
LA Krewe Rush 2nd · 8-0-1 · GD +39 |
Away far trip
Moore Park- Back Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 2.10 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 10:00 AM |
Hattiesburg Futbol Club 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -28 |
Away far trip
Tatum Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–1 | 2.71 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
Louisiana Fire SC 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Matt Savoie Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.42 | 2.09 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Gulf Coast United FC 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Jackson County Soccer Complex- 4420 Audubon Lane G |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.71 | 2.06 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
LA Elite SP 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Burbank Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.31 | 2.01 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LA Elite SP | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.95 | +0.70 | 91% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Mar 6 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LA Krewe Rush | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 9 | +39 | 24 | 2.67 | WWLWW | -0.56 | +0.15 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Gulf Coast United FC · Sun Mar 7 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 20 at LA Elite SP See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.31 | +0.14 | 95% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Nov 15 vs Union 10 · Sat Mar 13 vs LA Elite SP See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Louisiana Fire SC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWLW | -0.20 | +0.21 | 82% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Mar 13 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gulf Coast United FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 10 | 1.43 | LWWLW | -0.17 | +0.23 | 23% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 6 vs LA Krewe Rush · Sun Mar 7 vs LA Elite SP See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Coastal Rush | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 14 | 1.40 | LWLWL | +0.20 | +0.10 | 8% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 10 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 11 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Union 10 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 52 | -37 | 3 | 0.27 | LLLLL | +0.73 | -0.61 | 0% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 at Coastal Rush · Sun Nov 15 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 35 | -28 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.37 | +0.54 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Gulf Coast United FC · Sat Oct 10 at Union 10 · Sat Mar 6 vs LA Elite SP See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.74 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.