Coastal Rush

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Ashton Brosnaham, Field 2 ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.7 against · 2.43 expected points)

Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 3–2 at Union 10 (W)

Common opponents: Louisiana Fire SC — we 3–3; they 1–2, 0–2. Gulf Coast United FC — we 2–2, 1–4; they 2–3, 2–8. LA Krewe Rush — we 0–3, 1–7; they 0–7, 0–9. Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 4–2, 6–1; they 3–2. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 2–1; they 2–5. LA Elite SP — we 1–3; they 0–5, 3–6.

• They struggle to score
  Union 10 average 1.4 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 4 of 11.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Union 10 concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–9 at LA Krewe Rush.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs LA Krewe Rush.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 3–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Union 10 have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  Gulf Coast United FC sit 5th on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.40.

  A point moves us above Gulf Coast United FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Union 10 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Coastal Rush – Union 10) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 1%
4. 4th 7%
5. 5th 32%
6. 6th 60%
7. 7th
8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.86 PPG if we win out).