MVLA

ECNL Regional League Boys · Golden State BU18/19 · 7 teams · MVLA (all teams)

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6th

2-0-5 record · 7 played

0.86 points per game

-10 goal diff · 4–14

LLLWLlast 5

15% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.5

+0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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MVLA
6th · 0.86 PPG

COSC
3rd · 2.40 PPG

San Joaquin Memorial- 1406 N. Fresno St. Fresno, C, field 1 ↗ far trip

9% 18% 73%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.6 for, 2.1 against · 0.45 expected points)

Season so far	MVLA	COSC
Position	6th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-5	4-0-1
Points per game	0.86	2.40
Goals for / game	0.6	2.0
Goals against / game	2.0	0.8
Clean sheets	1	3
Held scoreless	4	0
Form (recent first)	L W L L L	W W W W L
Biggest win	1–0 vs 1974 Newark FC	4–0 vs 1974 Newark FC
Worst loss	0–4 vs El Camino FC Salinas	1–3 at Marin FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.92	+0.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.21	-0.09

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 0–1 vs COSC (L)

Common opponents: El Camino FC Salinas — we 0–3, 0–4; they 2–1. 1974 Newark FC — we 1–0, 2–1; they 4–0. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 0–2; they 2–0. Marin FC — we 1–3; they 1–3.

Game plan

Hard to break down
COSC concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 at El Camino FC Salinas, 0–1 vs COSC, 0–2 vs San Francisco Elite Academy, 0–4 vs El Camino FC Salinas.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
COSC have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at San Joaquin Memorial- 1406 N. Fresno St. Fresno, C.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
San Francisco Elite Academy sit 5th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.86.
A point moves us above San Francisco Elite Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the COSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MVLA – COSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.75 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 1.13 PPG	4th▲ up 2	4th▲ up 2	5th▲ up 1
Draw 0.88 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Loss 0.75 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

15% top 4

85% below the top 4

5.5 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 15%
5th 23%
6th 62%
7th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	El Camino FC Salinas	2.57 (+1.71)	1st (2.44)	36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Marin FC	2.50 (+1.64)	2nd (2.30)	34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	COSC	2.40 (+1.54)	3rd (2.11)	33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Los Gatos United Soccer Club	1.00 (+0.14)	4th (1.16)	A point next game
5	San Francisco Elite Academy	1.00 (+0.14)	5th (1.00)	A point next game

How the results connect

25 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link MVLA to COSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

3 even

22 favour them

-2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 4th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	COSC 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +6	Away far trip San Joaquin Memorial- 1406 N. Fresno St. Fresno, C	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.45	0.81	Upside
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	San Francisco Elite Academy 5th · 2-1-4 · GD -8	Away Skyline College	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–1	1.04	0.83	Upside
Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM	Marin FC 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +14	Home Foothill College	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–3	0.39	0.79	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Placer United	Home	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.89	0.80	Upside
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Folsom Lake Surf	Home	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.89	0.80	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Los Gatos United Soccer Club 4th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Away	●●●●● Very tough	21%	0–1	0.85	0.81	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley	Home	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.89	0.81	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	Association FC	Home	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.89	0.82	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Los Gatos United Soccer Club 4th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Home	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–1	1.06	0.83	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

El Camino FC Salinas

+19

2.57

WLWWW

-0.36

-0.08

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	MVLA (6th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	COSC (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Marin FC (2nd)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	MVLA (6th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at 1974 Newark FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	COSC (3rd)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Association FC (—)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Placer United (—)	3–1	77%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (—)	3–1	77%
·	Sat May 15	at	Marin FC (2nd)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

+14

2.50

WLWWW

-0.30

-0.15

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	MVLA (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	COSC (3rd)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sat Nov 14 at MVLA See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	MVLA (6th)	3–0	79%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (—)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	COSC (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sun May 2	vs	San Juan SC (—)	3–1	71%
·	Sat May 15	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

COSC

2.40

LWWWW

-0.09

100%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	MVLA (6th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Marin FC (2nd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MVLA · Sat Oct 31 at 1974 Newark FC · Sat Nov 7 vs El Camino FC Salinas See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	MVLA (6th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Marin FC (2nd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Los Gatos United Soccer Club

-3

1.00

DLWDL

+0.01

+0.10

61%

4.5

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Marin FC (2nd)	1–3
D	Sat Aug 29	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Marin FC · Sat Oct 31 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sat Nov 7 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Marin FC (2nd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	COSC (3rd)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	COSC (3rd)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	MVLA (6th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	San Juan SC (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Placer United (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 15	at	MVLA (6th)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Francisco Elite Academy

-8

1.00

LWLLL

+0.18

+0.14

24%

5.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	COSC (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Marin FC (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	MVLA (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–3
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Marin FC · Sat Nov 7 vs MVLA · Sat Nov 14 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Marin FC (2nd)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	MVLA (6th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (—)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	COSC (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (—)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (—)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 15	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MVLA

-10

0.86

LLLWL

+0.21

+0.07

15%

5.5

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 10	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Marin FC (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	COSC (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at COSC · Sat Nov 7 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Marin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	COSC (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Marin FC (2nd)	0–3	9%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Placer United (—)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (—)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (—)	1–1	22%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Association FC (—)	1–1	22%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

1974 Newark FC

-18

0.14

LLDLL

+0.17

+0.28

7.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Marin FC (2nd)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	MVLA (6th)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	COSC (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Aug 29	at	MVLA (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sat Oct 31 vs COSC · Sat Nov 7 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	COSC (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Association FC (—)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	San Juan SC (—)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Placer United (—)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Marin FC (2nd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	1–2	15%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (—)	1–2	15%
·	Sat May 15	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (5th)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.