COSC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Golden State BU18/19 · 7 teams · California Odyssey Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
San Joaquin Memorial- 1406 N. Fresno St. Fresno, C, field 1 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 0.6 against · 2.37 expected points)
| Season so far | COSC | MVLA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 2-0-5 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 0.86 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | L W L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs 1974 Newark FC | 1–0 vs 1974 Newark FC |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Marin FC | 0–4 vs El Camino FC Salinas |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.75 | -0.92 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.09 | +0.21 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–0 at MVLA (W)
Common opponents: Marin FC — we 1–3; they 1–3. 1974 Newark FC — we 4–0; they 1–0, 2–1. El Camino FC Salinas — we 2–1; they 0–3, 0–4. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 2–0; they 0–2.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
MVLA average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 4 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Marin FC sit 2nd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.40.A win moves us above Marin FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (COSC – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 26%
- 3rd 63%
- 4th 1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Camino FC Salinas | 2.57 (+0.17) | 1st (2.44) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 2 | Marin FC | 2.50 (+0.10) | 2nd (2.30) | Win next game |
How the results connect
25 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link COSC to MVLA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
MVLA 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -10 |
Home San Joaquin Memorial- 1406 N. Fresno St. Fresno, C |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.37 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
1974 Newark FC 7th · 0-1-6 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Newark Sportsfield Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.51 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
El Camino FC Salinas 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +19 |
Home Clovis Community College Soccer Field |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 2.25 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club 4th · 1-2-2 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Davis Legacy Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–1 | 1.93 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club 4th · 1-2-2 · GD -3 |
Home Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–0 | 2.16 | 2.21 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 10:00 AM |
Club America Nido Aguila | Valley |
Home Clovis Community College Soccer Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
San Francisco Elite Academy 5th · 2-1-4 · GD -8 |
Home Clovis Community College Soccer Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.35 | 2.20 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Mustang Soccer -RL |
Home Clovis Community College Soccer Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Marin FC 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +14 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.40 | 2.13 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 10:00 AM |
Folsom Lake Surf |
Home Clovis Community College Soccer Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.12 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 10:00 AM |
Davis Legacy |
Home Clovis Community College Soccer Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.11 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 18 | 2.57 | WLWWW | -0.36 | -0.08 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at 1974 Newark FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Marin FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.30 | -0.15 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sat Nov 14 at MVLA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | COSC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | -0.09 | -0.09 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MVLA · Sat Oct 31 at 1974 Newark FC · Sat Nov 7 vs El Camino FC Salinas See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 | 1.00 | DLWDL | +0.01 | +0.10 | 61% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Marin FC · Sat Oct 31 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sat Nov 7 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 7 | 1.00 | LWLLL | +0.18 | +0.14 | 24% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Marin FC · Sat Nov 7 vs MVLA · Sat Nov 14 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | MVLA | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLWL | +0.21 | +0.07 | 15% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at COSC · Sat Nov 7 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Marin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | 1974 Newark FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 1 | 0.14 | LLDLL | +0.17 | +0.28 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sat Oct 31 vs COSC · Sat Nov 7 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.