Marin FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Golden State BU16 · 7 teams · Marin FC (all teams)

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3rd

2-4-1 record · 7 played

1.43 points per game

+1 goal diff · 7–6

DDWLDlast 5

75% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6

-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Marin FC
3rd · 1.43 PPG

Los Gatos United Soccer Club
1st · 1.83 PPG

Monta Vista High School, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

27% 30% 43%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.2 against · 1.12 expected points)

Season so far	Marin FC	Los Gatos United Soccer Club
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	2-4-1	3-2-1
Points per game	1.43	1.83
Goals for / game	1.0	1.7
Goals against / game	0.9	1.2
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	D L W D D	W L W W D
Biggest win	2–1 at COSC	2–0 vs San Francisco Elite Academy
Worst loss	1–2 at San Francisco Elite Academy	1–2 at COSC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.08	+0.34
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.01	-0.02

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club (D)

Common opponents: COSC — we 2–1, 1–1; they 1–2. El Camino FC Salinas — we 1–1; they 2–1. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–2; they 2–2, 2–0. 1974 Newark FC — we 0–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs 1974 Newark FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 27%; a draw (30%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Monta Vista High School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
COSC sit 2nd on 1.57 PPG; we are on 1.43.
A point moves us above COSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Los Gatos United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Marin FC – Los Gatos United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.25 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2
Win 1.63 PPG	1st▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 1.38 PPG	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.25 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

8% finish 1st

75% top 4

25% below the top 4

3.6 average finish

1st 8%
2nd 18%
3rd 25%
4th 24%
5th 14%
6th 8%
7th 4%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Los Gatos United Soccer Club	1.83 (+0.40)	1st (1.75)	18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
2	COSC	1.57 (+0.14)	2nd (1.60)	A point next game

How the results connect

33 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Marin FC to Los Gatos United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us

6 even

16 favour them

-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 6th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1st · 3-2-1 · GD +3	Away far trip Monta Vista High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	27%	0–1	1.12	1.39	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	San Francisco Elite Academy 6th · 2-2-3 · GD -3	Home San Domenico	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	1–0	1.67	1.42	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	MVLA 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -3	Away far trip Foothill College	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.51	1.43	Upside
Sat Mar 27 TBD	Folsom Lake Surf	Home	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–0	1.52	1.44	Upside
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Davis Legacy	Home	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–0	1.52	1.44	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	1974 Newark FC 7th · 2-1-4 · GD -4	Away	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.51	1.45	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	San Juan SC	Home	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–0	1.52	1.46	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	El Camino FC Salinas 4th · 2-3-2 · GD +4	Home	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.34	1.45	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Los Gatos United Soccer Club

1.83

DWWLW

-0.02

-0.04

96%

1.8

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	COSC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Marin FC (3rd)	1–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Marin FC · Sat Oct 31 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sat Nov 7 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Marin FC (3rd)	1–0	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	COSC (2nd)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	MVLA (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	San Juan SC (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Placer United (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sat May 15	at	MVLA (5th)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

COSC

1.57

LWDWW

-0.02

-0.03

89%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	MVLA (5th)	1–3
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Marin FC (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Marin FC (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MVLA · Sat Oct 31 at 1974 Newark FC · Sat Nov 7 vs El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	MVLA (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (—)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (—)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (—)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

1.43

DDWLD

-0.01

-0.04

75%

3.6

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	MVLA (5th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	1–1
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	COSC (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	COSC (2nd)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sat Nov 14 at MVLA See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	1–0	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	MVLA (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (—)	1–0	41%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	1–0	41%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun May 2	vs	San Juan SC (—)	1–0	41%
·	Sat May 15	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	1–1	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

El Camino FC Salinas

1.29

DDLLW

-0.09

+0.00

76%

3.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	MVLA (5th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	COSC (2nd)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Marin FC (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	3–2
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	MVLA (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at 1974 Newark FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	COSC (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Association FC (—)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Placer United (—)	1–1	51%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (—)	1–1	51%
·	Sat May 15	at	Marin FC (3rd)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MVLA

-3

1.14

WDLLL

+0.00

+0.08

20%

5.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 10	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Marin FC (3rd)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	COSC (2nd)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	3–1
D	Sat Aug 22	at	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at COSC · Sat Nov 7 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Marin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	COSC (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Marin FC (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Placer United (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Association FC (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Francisco Elite Academy

-3

1.14

LDWWL

+0.10

-0.01

29%

5.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	COSC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Marin FC (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	MVLA (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	1974 Newark FC (7th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Marin FC · Sat Nov 7 vs MVLA · Sat Nov 14 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Marin FC (3rd)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	MVLA (5th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Mustang Soccer -RL (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	COSC (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 15	vs	1974 Newark FC (7th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

1974 Newark FC

-4

1.00

LLLWD

+0.01

+0.08

16%

5.8

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Marin FC (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	MVLA (5th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	COSC (2nd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	MVLA (5th)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sat Oct 31 vs COSC · Sat Nov 7 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	COSC (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Association FC (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	San Juan SC (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Placer United (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Marin FC (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Davis Legacy (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Club America Nido Aguila \| Valley (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 15	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (6th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.