Rochester NY FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU17 · 9 teams · RNY FC Youth (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 12:30 PM
Flash Fields, Field B ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Rochester NY FC | WNY Flash |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
WNY Flash average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at Flash Fields.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit 3rd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Pittsburgh Riverhounds on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rochester NY FC – WNY Flash) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 6th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 4 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 8th▼ down 4 | 8th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
9th▼ down 5 | 9th▼ down 5 | 9th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 12%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 10%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Croatia Juniors | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 4th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 12:30 PM |
WNY Flash 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Flash Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
WNY Flash Rochester 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Our Lady of Mercy HS · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 03:30 PM |
Upper 90 FC -RL 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Gameday Sports |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 11:00 AM |
Croatia Juniors 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.33 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
T3FC East 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 04:00 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Steel City FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Croatia Juniors 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Upper 90 FC -RL 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Steel City FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
WNY Flash 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
Cleveland Force SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sun May 23 11:00 AM |
T3FC East 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Steel City FC · Sun Dec 6 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 6 vs Rochester NY FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Croatia Juniors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Nov 15 at WNY Flash · Sat Dec 5 vs T3FC East See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at Upper 90 FC -RL · Sun Dec 6 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Mar 6 at Steel City FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Rochester NY FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at WNY Flash · Sun Nov 15 at WNY Flash Rochester · Sat Dec 5 at Upper 90 FC -RL See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Steel City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at T3FC East · Sun Nov 15 at Upper 90 FC -RL · Sat Dec 5 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | T3FC East | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Steel City FC · Sat Dec 5 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Upper 90 FC -RL See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Upper 90 FC -RL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Nov 15 vs Steel City FC · Sat Dec 5 vs Rochester NY FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | WNY Flash | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Nov 15 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | WNY Flash Rochester | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Nov 15 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 6 at WNY Flash See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.