Nationals SC Capital Area Grey
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 9 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
Capital Sportsplex Lansing, 11 v 11 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.2 for, 2.1 against · 2.34 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Capital Area Grey | Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L | W L L L L |
| Biggest win | 8–2 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy | 6–5 at Pacesetter Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Manta | 2–8 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Grey |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.50 | -1.06 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.71 | +0.12 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 8–2 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (W)
Common opponents: Manta — we 0–1, 0–2; they 0–3.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy concede 4.2/game; worst result 2–8 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Grey.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Manta, 0–2 vs Manta.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 4–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Capital Area Grey – Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.20 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 22%
- 4th 28%
- 5th 29%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manta | 3.00 (+2.25) | 1st (2.61) | 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central | 2.25 (+1.50) | 4th (1.65) | 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | T3FC West | 2.17 (+1.42) | 2nd (1.98) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 4 | Nationals SC | 1.80 (+1.05) | 3rd (1.66) | 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
How the results connect
9 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Capital Area Grey to Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.40 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -10 |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
4–2 | 2.34 | 1.07 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
GTFC Impact 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Springfield High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 1.19 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Nationals SC 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Pacesetter Soccer Club 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -14 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
4–2 | 2.43 | 1.37 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
T3FC West 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Canton Force 8th · 0-2-2 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–2 | 1.81 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 06:00 PM |
T3FC West 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +12 |
Home Hope Sports Complex · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.17 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 10:00 AM |
Canton Force 8th · 0-2-2 · GD -4 |
Home Hope Sports Complex · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
3–1 | 2.12 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 02:00 PM |
GTFC Impact 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.08 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 02:00 PM |
Pacesetter Soccer Club 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -14 |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
5–1 | 2.65 | 1.55 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 04:00 PM |
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–2 | 1.74 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 04:00 PM |
Nationals SC 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +1 |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.60 | 1.56 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manta | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | +17 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.47 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs T3FC West · Sun Nov 8 vs Canton Force · Sun Dec 13 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | +0.10 | -0.10 | 70% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC · Sat Dec 12 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | T3FC West | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 13 | 2.17 | WLWWD | -0.66 | +0.08 | 95% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 1 at Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Manta See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWLW | +0.13 | -0.20 | 67% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 8 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Nationals SC Capital Area Grey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +0.71 | -0.40 | 59% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 8 at GTFC Impact · Sat Mar 13 at Nationals SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | GTFC Impact | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +0.80 | -0.27 | 4% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs T3FC West See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLLW | +0.12 | +0.02 | 0% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Capital Area Grey · Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact · Sat Dec 12 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Canton Force | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 2 | 0.50 | DLLD | +0.17 | -0.01 | 3% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 8 at Manta See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Pacesetter Soccer Club | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.60 | +0.12 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Canton Force · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.