Kernow Storm FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU17 · 10 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.1 against · 1.63 expected points)
| Season so far | Kernow Storm FC | Arkansas Comets FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-5 | 3-1-7 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.91 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L W W | L L W W D |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic | 3–1 vs Oklahoma Celtic |
| Worst loss | 0–6 vs Tulsa SC | 1–5 at FC Tulsa Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.09 | -0.74 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.24 | -0.01 |
Common opponents: Oklahoma Celtic — we 5–0; they 3–1. Oklahoma Cosmos — we 0–1; they 0–2. FC Tulsa Academy — we 0–2; they 1–5. Arkansas Rising — we 2–3; they 1–4, 2–5. West Side Alliance — we 2–0; they 1–2. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 3–1, 3–0; they 2–1, 4–2. OK Energy FC Frontier — we 3–4; they 1–3, 2–2. Tulsa SC — we 0–6; they 2–3.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Arkansas Comets FC concede 2.7/game; worst result 1–5 at FC Tulsa Academy.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs Oklahoma Cosmos, 0–2 vs FC Tulsa Academy, 0–6 vs Tulsa SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 19% / loss 33%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Oklahoma Celtic sit 6th on 1.44 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above Oklahoma Celtic on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC – Arkansas Comets FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.30 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.30 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 1.20 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 9th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 6%
- 6th 48%
- 7th 28%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 5%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy | 2.56 (+1.23) | 1st (2.47) | 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 2.00 (+0.67) | 2nd (1.98) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | Arkansas Rising | 1.90 (+0.57) | 3rd (1.85) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 4 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 1.67 (+0.34) | 4th (1.76) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 5 | Tulsa SC | 1.60 (+0.27) | 5th (1.69) | 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | Oklahoma Celtic | 1.44 (+0.11) | 7th (1.18) | A point next game |
How the results connect
99 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC to Arkansas Comets FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.25 · 3rd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM |
Arkansas Comets FC 9th · 3-1-7 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.63 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Rising 3rd · 6-1-3 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Burns Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.67 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
Tulsa SC 5th · 4-4-2 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 4th · 4-3-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
0–1 | 0.88 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
West Side Alliance 8th · 3-1-7 · GD -7 |
Home Rolling Hills Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 1.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 02:00 PM |
Arkansas Comets FC 9th · 3-1-7 · GD -11 |
Home Gateway Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy 1st · 7-2-0 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.34 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 01:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 2nd · 5-5-0 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 10:00 AM |
Oklahoma Celtic 6th · 4-1-4 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Oklahoma Celtic |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.63 | 1.23 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 23 | 2.56 | WWWDD | -0.04 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance · Sun Nov 1 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 20 | 2.00 | WDWDW | -0.15 | -0.04 | 95% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Arkansas Rising | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 16 | +14 | 19 | 1.90 | WLWWW | -0.21 | -0.02 | 84% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 15 | 1.67 | WWLWD | +0.50 | -0.55 | 65% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Tulsa SC | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 16 | 1.60 | DDLWW | -0.12 | +0.00 | 53% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Oklahoma Celtic | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 13 | 1.44 | WDWLW | -0.08 | +0.29 | 1% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Kernow Storm FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 12 | 1.33 | WWLLW | -0.24 | +0.25 | 2% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising · Sat Oct 31 at Tulsa SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | West Side Alliance | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 | 0.91 | LLLLL | +0.06 | +0.13 | 0% | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Tulsa Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Arkansas Comets FC | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 10 | 0.91 | DWWLL | -0.01 | +0.20 | 0% | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 45 | -39 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.16 | +0.52 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Thu Nov 5 at West Side Alliance · Sun Dec 6 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.