Arkansas Rising
ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU17 · 10 teams · Arkansas Rising Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.2 against · 2.36 expected points)
| Season so far | Arkansas Rising | West Side Alliance |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-1-3 | 3-1-7 |
| Points per game | 1.90 | 0.91 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 4–1 at Broken Arrow Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs Oklahoma Celtic | 1–4 at Oklahoma Celtic |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.00 | -0.53 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.21 | +0.06 |
Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 4–2 at West Side Alliance (W)
Common opponents: FC Tulsa Academy — we 1–3; they 0–1. Arkansas Comets FC — we 4–1, 5–2; they 2–1. OK Energy FC Frontier — we 1–1; they 0–1. Oklahoma Celtic — we 0–3; they 2–3, 1–4. Kernow Storm FC — we 3–2; they 0–2. Oklahoma Cosmos — we 1–2; they 1–0, 0–2. Tulsa SC — we 2–0; they 1–1. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 9–0; they 4–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Oklahoma Celtic.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
West Side Alliance have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
OK Energy FC Frontier sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.90.A win moves us above OK Energy FC Frontier on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Rising – West Side Alliance) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.82 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.73 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 23%
- 3rd 36%
- 4th 25%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy | 2.56 (+0.66) | 1st (2.47) | 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 2.00 (+0.10) | 2nd (1.98) | Win next game |
How the results connect
92 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Arkansas Rising to West Side Alliance through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
West Side Alliance 8th · 3-1-7 · GD -7 |
Home Burns Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–1 | 2.36 | 1.94 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Kernow Storm FC 7th · 4-0-5 · GD +1 |
Home Burns Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 1.96 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 2nd · 5-5-0 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.00 | 1.89 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Oklahoma Celtic 6th · 4-1-4 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Oklahoma Celtic |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.24 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 4th · 4-3-2 · GD +4 |
Home Burns Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 03:00 PM |
Broken Arrow Soccer Club 10th · 0-0-10 · GD -39 |
Away far trip
Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.89 | 1.95 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 13 12:00 PM |
Tulsa SC 5th · 4-4-2 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.23 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 11:00 AM |
FC Tulsa Academy 1st · 7-2-0 · GD +20 |
Home Burns Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 1.85 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Tulsa Academy | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 23 | 2.56 | WWWDD | -0.04 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance · Sun Nov 1 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 20 | 2.00 | WDWDW | -0.15 | -0.04 | 95% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Arkansas Rising | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 16 | +14 | 19 | 1.90 | WLWWW | -0.21 | -0.02 | 84% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 15 | 1.67 | WWLWD | +0.50 | -0.55 | 65% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Tulsa SC | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 16 | 1.60 | DDLWW | -0.12 | +0.00 | 53% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Oklahoma Celtic | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 13 | 1.44 | WDWLW | -0.08 | +0.29 | 1% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Kernow Storm FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 12 | 1.33 | WWLLW | -0.24 | +0.25 | 2% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising · Sat Oct 31 at Tulsa SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | West Side Alliance | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 | 0.91 | LLLLL | +0.06 | +0.13 | 0% | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Tulsa Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Arkansas Comets FC | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 10 | 0.91 | DWWLL | -0.01 | +0.20 | 0% | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 45 | -39 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.16 | +0.52 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Thu Nov 5 at West Side Alliance · Sun Dec 6 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.