Broken Arrow Soccer Club
ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU14 · 10 teams · Broken Arrow Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:00 AM
Scheels Sports Complex, Field 7 (11v11) ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.5 against · 1.01 expected points)
| Season so far | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | FC Tulsa Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-7 | 2-0-5 |
| Points per game | 0.90 | 0.86 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L W | W L L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs FC Tulsa Academy | 5–2 at Oklahoma Cosmos |
| Worst loss | 0–8 at Arkansas Rising | 3–6 vs Arkansas Rising |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.49 | -0.93 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.17 | -0.32 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 3–0 vs FC Tulsa Academy (W)
Common opponents: Tulsa SC — we 1–2; they 0–3. OK Energy FC Frontier — we 0–1; they 0–3. Arkansas Comets FC — we 2–1, 1–7; they 2–1. Kernow Storm FC — we 2–3, 2–1; they 0–1. Arkansas Rising — we 0–8; they 3–6.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at OK Energy FC Frontier, 0–8 at Arkansas Rising.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 27%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Scheels Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Arkansas Comets FC sit 7th on 1.09 PPG; we are on 0.90.A point moves us above Arkansas Comets FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Tulsa Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Broken Arrow Soccer Club – FC Tulsa Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.82 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.09 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.91 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.82 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 34%
- 9th 38%
- 10th 17%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 2.50 (+1.60) | 2nd (2.30) | 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | West Side Alliance | 2.40 (+1.50) | 1st (2.35) | 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Oklahoma Celtic | 2.11 (+1.21) | 3rd (2.16) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 1.50 (+0.60) | 4th (1.55) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 5 | Tulsa SC | 1.50 (+0.60) | 5th (1.54) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | Kernow Storm FC | 1.22 (+0.32) | 6th (1.20) | 13 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 7 | Arkansas Comets FC | 1.09 (+0.19) | 7th (1.14) | A point next game |
How the results connect
58 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Broken Arrow Soccer Club to FC Tulsa Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.06 · 3rd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
FC Tulsa Academy 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -9 |
Away Scheels Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
West Side Alliance 2nd · 8-0-2 · GD +24 |
Away RiverCity Parks |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.13 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 10:00 AM |
Oklahoma Celtic 3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +10 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
Arkansas Rising 1st · 8-1-1 · GD +18 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.32 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 03:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -19 |
Away far trip
South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 4th · 5-0-5 · GD +5 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 01:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -19 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.57 | 0.84 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 11:00 AM |
Tulsa SC 5th · 5-0-5 · GD +1 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.76 | 0.84 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 17 | +18 | 25 | 2.50 | DWWWW | -0.23 | -0.13 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | West Side Alliance | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 14 | +24 | 24 | 2.40 | LWWLW | -0.13 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Oklahoma Celtic | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 19 | 2.11 | LWLWW | +0.41 | -0.60 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 15 | 1.50 | WLLWW | -0.08 | -0.01 | 50% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Tulsa SC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 15 | 1.50 | LLLLW | +0.11 | -0.15 | 44% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Kernow Storm FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 11 | 1.22 | LWLLL | -0.12 | +0.11 | 5% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising · Sat Oct 31 at Tulsa SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Arkansas Comets FC | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 12 | 1.09 | WLWWL | +0.04 | -0.01 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 35 | -21 | 9 | 0.90 | WLLLW | +0.17 | +0.06 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Nov 7 at West Side Alliance · Sun Dec 6 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | FC Tulsa Academy | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLLW | -0.32 | +0.31 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 3 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 30 | -19 | 3 | 0.38 | WLLLL | +0.44 | -0.09 | 0% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.