Arkansas Rising

ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU14 · 10 teams · Arkansas Rising Soccer Club (all teams)

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1st

8-1-1 record · 10 played

2.50 points per game

+18 goal diff · 35–17

DWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.9

-0.23 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Arkansas Rising
1st · 2.50 PPG

West Side Alliance
2nd · 2.40 PPG

Burns Park , Field 14 ↗

39% 18% 43%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.6 against · 1.35 expected points)

Season so far	Arkansas Rising	West Side Alliance
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	8-1-1	8-0-2
Points per game	2.50	2.40
Goals for / game	3.5	3.8
Goals against / game	1.7	1.4
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W D	W L W W L
Biggest win	8–0 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club	8–1 vs Oklahoma Cosmos
Worst loss	1–5 at West Side Alliance	2–3 vs OK Energy FC Frontier
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.32	+1.71
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.23	-0.13

Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 1–5 at West Side Alliance (L)

Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC — we 6–3, 4–1; they 4–2. OK Energy FC Frontier — we 2–1; they 2–3. Oklahoma Celtic — we 3–1; they 2–0, 1–2. Kernow Storm FC — we 2–2; they 3–1. Oklahoma Cosmos — we 2–1; they 8–1, 3–2. Tulsa SC — we 1–0; they 5–0. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 8–0; they 5–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
West Side Alliance score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.2.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Rising – West Side Alliance) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.36 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.55 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.36 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.27 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

36% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.9 average finish

1st 36%
2nd 39%
3rd 25%
4th 1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

81 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Arkansas Rising to West Side Alliance through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

34 favour us

10 even

37 favour them

+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 7th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	West Side Alliance 2nd · 8-0-2 · GD +24	Home Burns Park	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–2	1.35	2.40	Upside
Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM	Kernow Storm FC 6th · 3-2-4 · GD -1	Home Burns Park	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	3–1	2.31	2.39	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	OK Energy FC Frontier 4th · 5-0-5 · GD +5	Away far trip Edmond Soccer Club	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–1	1.63	2.33	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Oklahoma Celtic 3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +10	Away far trip Oklahoma Celtic	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–2	1.30	2.26	Upside
Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM	Oklahoma Cosmos 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -19	Home Burns Park	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.75	2.29	Bank it
Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM	FC Tulsa Academy 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -9	Home Burns Park	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–1	2.59	2.31	Bank it
Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM	Broken Arrow Soccer Club 8th · 3-0-7 · GD -21	Away far trip Indian Springs Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	4–1	2.59	2.33	Bank it
Sun Dec 13 10:00 AM	Tulsa SC 5th · 5-0-5 · GD +1	Away far trip Jenks Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–1	1.86	2.30	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Arkansas Rising

+18

2.50

DWWWW

-0.23

-0.13

100%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	6–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	6–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	West Side Alliance (2nd)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Tulsa SC (5th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance

+24

2.40

LWWLW

-0.13

-0.28

100%

1.6

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Tulsa SC (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	4–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	5–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	5–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	8–1

Next: Sat Sep 12 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	5–1	92%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Tulsa SC (5th)	3–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Celtic

+10

2.11

LWLWW

+0.41

-0.60

100%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	West Side Alliance (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	West Side Alliance (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Tulsa SC (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	7–1
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	2–2

Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	2–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	2–1	77%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Frontier

1.50

WLLWW

-0.08

-0.01

50%

4.6

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	4–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	West Side Alliance (2nd)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Wed Oct 28	at	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tulsa SC

1.50

LLLLW

+0.11

-0.15

44%

4.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	4–3
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	West Side Alliance (2nd)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	6–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC

-1

1.22

LWLLL

-0.12

+0.11

6.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Tulsa SC (5th)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	4–1
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising · Sat Oct 31 at Tulsa SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	2–2	51%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

-8

1.09

WLWWL

+0.04

-0.01

6.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Tulsa SC (5th)	4–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	7–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	3–6
L	Sun Aug 30	at	West Side Alliance (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	2–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Broken Arrow Soccer Club

-21

0.90

WLLLW

+0.17

+0.06

8.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	1–7
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–7
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	West Side Alliance (2nd)	2–5
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Nov 7 at West Side Alliance · Sun Dec 6 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Tulsa Academy

-9

0.86

LLLLW

-0.32

+0.31

8.3

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	5–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Tulsa SC (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	3–6
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Sep 12 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 3 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Cosmos

-19

0.38

WLLLL

+0.44

-0.09

9.6

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	West Side Alliance (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Tulsa SC (5th)	2–6
L	Sat Aug 22	at	West Side Alliance (2nd)	1–8

Next: Sat Oct 3 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	FC Tulsa Academy (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tulsa SC (5th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Kernow Storm FC (6th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Arkansas Comets FC (7th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (3rd)	1–3	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.