Chicago Soccer Academy

ECNL Regional League Boys · Chicago Metro BU13 · 7 teams · Chicago Soccer Academy (CSA) (all teams)

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4th

0-3-2 record · 5 played

0.60 points per game

-10 goal diff · 5–15

LDLDDlast 5

9% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.6

-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Chicago Soccer Academy
4th · 0.60 PPG

Bloomingdale Lightning
1st · 3.00 PPG

East Side Sports Complex, field 1 ↗

4% 90%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.2 for, 4.7 against · 0.18 expected points)

Season so far	Chicago Soccer Academy	Bloomingdale Lightning
Position	4th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	0-3-2	5-0-0
Points per game	0.60	3.00
Goals for / game	1.0	5.8
Goals against / game	3.0	1.2
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	D D L D L	W W W W W
Biggest win	—	13–0 vs Roadrunners SC
Worst loss	0–7 vs Northern Indiana Express	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.20	+2.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.15	-1.25

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 3–6 at Bloomingdale Lightning (L)

Common opponents: Force — we 1–1; they 3–1. Northern Indiana Express — we 0–7; they 3–2. Roadrunners SC — we 0–0; they 13–0, 4–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Bloomingdale Lightning score 5.8/game — well above the league's 2.1.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 vs Northern Indiana Express, 0–0 at Roadrunners SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 4%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Bloomingdale Lightning have won 5 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Bloomingdale Lightning game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Chicago Soccer Academy – Bloomingdale Lightning) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.50 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 3
Win 1.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	6th▼ down 2
Draw 0.67 PPG	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2
Loss 0.50 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

9% top 4

91% below the top 4

5.6 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 9%
5th 26%
6th 60%
7th 5%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Bloomingdale Lightning	3.00 (+2.40)	1st (2.43)	51 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC 1974 Libertyville	3.00 (+2.40)	2nd (2.41)	51 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Northern Indiana Express	2.00 (+1.40)	3rd (2.09)	33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection

How the results connect

7 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Chicago Soccer Academy to Bloomingdale Lightning through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

7 favour them

-5.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.36 · 1st hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM	Bloomingdale Lightning 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +23	Home East Side Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	4%	1–4	0.18	0.53	Upside
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	FC 1974 Libertyville 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +17	Away far trip LTSC	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–4	0.14	0.47	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Chicago City SC 5th · 0-1-1 · GD -3	Away	●●●●● Very tough	25%	1–2	0.96	0.54	Upside
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Bloomingdale Lightning 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +23	Home	●●●●● Very tough	4%	1–4	0.18	0.50	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Force 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -7	Away	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.13	0.56	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Chicago City SC 5th · 0-1-1 · GD -3	Home	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.21	0.62	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	FC 1974 Libertyville 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +17	Home	●●●●● Very tough	5%	0–3	0.23	0.59	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	Northern Indiana Express 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +9	Home	●●●●● Very tough	8%	1–3	0.34	0.57	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	Force 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -7	Home	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.38	0.63	Upside
Sat May 8 TBD	Roadrunners SC 7th · 0-1-4 · GD -29	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.11	0.72	Swing game
Sun May 9 TBD	FC 1974 Libertyville 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +17	Away	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–4	0.14	0.69	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Northern Indiana Express 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +9	Away	●●●●● Very tough	5%	1–4	0.21	0.66	Upside
Sun May 16 TBD	Roadrunners SC 7th · 0-1-4 · GD -29	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–1	2.35	0.75	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Bloomingdale Lightning

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-1.25

+0.01

100%

1.6

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Force (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Roadrunners SC (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Roadrunners SC (7th)	13–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	6–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Chicago City SC · Sun Oct 25 at Chicago Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Chicago City SC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	3–2	57%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Roadrunners SC (7th)	8–0	99%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Force (6th)	4–0	89%
·	Sat May 8	at	Force (6th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat May 15	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–1	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC 1974 Libertyville

+17

3.00

WWWW

-1.87

+0.15

100%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Roadrunners SC (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Force (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Roadrunners SC (7th)	10–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force · Sat Oct 31 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Oct 31 vs Northern Indiana Express See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Force (6th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Roadrunners SC (7th)	5–0	98%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Force (6th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat May 22	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	2–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northern Indiana Express

2.00

WLW

+0.13

-0.28

100%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Force (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Chicago City SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Oct 31 at FC 1974 Libertyville See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Roadrunners SC (7th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Roadrunners SC (7th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Force (6th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Roadrunners SC (7th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Force (6th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat May 1	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun May 2	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat May 22	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chicago Soccer Academy

-10

0.60

LDLDD

-0.15

+0.36

5.6

D	Sat Oct 10	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Roadrunners SC (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	0–7
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Force (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	3–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Bloomingdale Lightning · Sat Nov 7 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Mar 6 at Chicago City SC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Force (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	1–3	8%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Force (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 8	at	Roadrunners SC (7th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun May 9	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sat May 15	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Roadrunners SC (7th)	2–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chicago City SC

-3

0.50

+0.28

+0.09

61%

4.5

D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Oct 24 vs Bloomingdale Lightning · Sat Oct 31 vs Force See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Force (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Roadrunners SC (7th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Roadrunners SC (7th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Force (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 8	at	Force (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun May 9	at	Roadrunners SC (7th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force

-7

0.25

DLLL

+1.19

-0.12

29%

5.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Oct 25 vs Roadrunners SC · Sat Oct 31 at Chicago City SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Roadrunners SC (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Roadrunners SC (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun May 2	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat May 22	at	Roadrunners SC (7th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Roadrunners SC

-29

0.20

LLLDL

+1.45

+0.18

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	0–13
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–10

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Force · Sun Nov 1 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Nov 7 at Force See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Force (6th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Force (6th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Northern Indiana Express (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun May 16	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Force (6th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.12 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.