Wilmington Hammerheads

ECNL Regional League Boys · Carolinas BU14 · 10 teams · Wilmington Hammerheads (all teams)

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7th

3-0-5 record · 8 played

1.13 points per game

-6 goal diff · 14–20

LLLLWlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.7

+0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 02:00 PM

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Wilmington Hammerheads
7th · 1.13 PPG

NC Fusion
9th · 0.20 PPG

Truist Soccer Complex at Bryan Park, BP 02 Triton Management ↗ far trip

38% 23% 39%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.6 against · 1.38 expected points)

Season so far	Wilmington Hammerheads	NC Fusion
Position	7th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-5	0-1-4
Points per game	1.13	0.20
Goals for / game	1.8	0.6
Goals against / game	2.5	2.2
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W L L L L	L L L L D
Biggest win	2–0 at Villarreal Force Academy	—
Worst loss	1–6 vs Catawba Valley YSA	1–4 at Catawba Valley YSA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.61	-0.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.02	+1.08

Common opponents: NCFC Youth Premier — we 0–2; they 0–1. Catawba Valley YSA — we 1–6; they 1–4. Highland FC — we 2–1; they 0–3.

Game plan

They struggle to score
NC Fusion average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 2 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs NCFC Youth Premier.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 38%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Confidence is low on their side
NC Fusion have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Truist Soccer Complex at Bryan Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NC Fusion game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wilmington Hammerheads – NC Fusion) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.11 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Win 1.33 PPG	7th— holds	6th▲ up 1	7th— holds
Draw 1.11 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	8th▼ down 1	7th— holds	9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

7.7 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th 3%
6th 11%
7th 25%
8th 37%
9th 24%
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	NCFC Youth Premier	2.57 (+1.44)	1st (2.21)	53 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
2	NCFC Youth Elite	2.17 (+1.04)	2nd (2.13)	44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
3	Charlotte SA Blue	2.17 (+1.04)	4th (1.94)	44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4	Catawba Valley YSA	2.14 (+1.01)	3rd (1.99)	43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
5	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC	1.71 (+0.58)	6th (1.37)	33 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6	Charlotte SA White	1.43 (+0.30)	5th (1.46)	26 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection

How the results connect

26 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Wilmington Hammerheads to NC Fusion through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

4 even

13 favour them

-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 5th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Thu Oct 1 TBD no score posted	NCFC Youth Elite 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15	Away	●●●●● Very tough	8%	1–3	0.36	1.04	Upside
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	NC Fusion 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -8	Away far trip Truist Soccer Complex at Bryan Park	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.38	1.07	Upside
Sat Nov 21 03:00 PM	Charlotte SA White 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +6	Away far trip Frank Liske Park	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–3	0.70	1.04	Upside
Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM	Charlotte SA Blue 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11	Away far trip Orthocarolina Complex	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–3	0.49	0.99	Upside
Sat Dec 5 01:00 PM	Villarreal Force Academy 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -44	Home NCINO Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	4–0	2.79	1.13	Bank it
Sat Dec 12 TBD	Catawba Valley YSA 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +11	Away	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–3	0.47	1.08	Upside
Sun Jan 24 11:00 AM	Highland FC 8th · 2-2-4 · GD -3	Away far trip John B Lewis Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–1	1.07	1.08	Upside
Sat Jan 30 TBD	NCFC Youth Premier 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +16	Away	●●●●● Very tough	8%	0–2	0.39	1.04	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Catawba Valley YSA 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +11	Home	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–3	0.69	1.02	Upside
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Highland FC 8th · 2-2-4 · GD -3	Home	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–1	1.32	1.04	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Charlotte SA White 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +6	Home	●●●●○ Tough	28%	2–3	0.99	1.03	Upside
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Charlotte SA Blue 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11	Home	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.72	1.02	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +2	Home	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.22	1.03	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	NC Fusion 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -8	Away	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.38	1.04	Upside
Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM	NCFC Youth Elite 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15	Away far trip WRAL	●●●●● Very tough	8%	1–3	0.36	1.01	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	Villarreal Force Academy 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -44	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.66	1.08	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

NCFC Youth Premier

+16

2.57

WWWWL

-0.83

+0.12

99%

1.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Catawba Valley YSA · Sun Oct 25 at Highland FC · Sat Nov 7 at NC Fusion See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Highland FC (8th)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Highland FC (8th)	1–0	67%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat May 1	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth Elite

+15

2.17

LWWWW

-0.51

-0.10

99%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Highland FC (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	11–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	1–1

Next: Thu Oct 1 vs Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA White · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Oct 1 (no score yet)	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–2	70%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Highland FC (8th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–2	59%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Highland FC (8th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–2	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA Blue

+11

2.17

DWWWW

-0.44

-0.11

92%

3.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	5–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Highland FC (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NC Fusion · Sun Oct 25 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at Highland FC See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Highland FC (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–2	61%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–2	49%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–2	57%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–2	61%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Highland FC (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	6–0	99%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sat May 1	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Catawba Valley YSA

+11

2.14

WWLWL

+0.20

-0.12

95%

2.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	6–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Highland FC (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Force Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA White See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–2	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Highland FC (8th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–2	69%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1	67%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Highland FC (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–2	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Jacksonville Hammerheads FC

1.71

LLWLW

-0.27

+0.12

6.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	4–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Highland FC (8th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	4–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at NC Fusion · Sat Nov 21 at Charlotte SA Blue See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	2–3	28%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Highland FC (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	2–3	18%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Highland FC (8th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–3	27%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–3	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA White

1.43

WLWLW

-0.40

+0.07

10%

5.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	9–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Highland FC (8th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	1–5
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Highland FC (8th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sat Oct 31 at Catawba Valley YSA See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	2–3	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–2	57%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	2–3	26%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–3	34%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Highland FC (8th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–3	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	7–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat May 1	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	2–3	17%
·	Sun May 2	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wilmington Hammerheads

-6

1.13

LLLLW

+0.02

+0.01

7.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Highland FC (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	1–6
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–3

Next: Thu Oct 1 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at NC Fusion · Sat Nov 21 at Charlotte SA White See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Oct 1 (no score yet)	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NC Fusion (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Highland FC (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Highland FC (8th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	2–3	28%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NC Fusion (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat May 1	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	3–0	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Highland FC

-3

1.00

LWLWL

+0.40

+0.00

7.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Villarreal Force Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs NCFC Youth Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	1–0	50%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NC Fusion (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NC Fusion

-8

0.20

DLLLL

+1.08

-0.12

8.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Highland FC (8th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Villarreal Force Academy · Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA White See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Highland FC (8th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Highland FC (8th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Villarreal Force Academy

-44

0.00

LLLLL

+0.75

+0.34

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	0–9
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	1–11
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs NC Fusion · Sat Oct 24 at Highland FC · Sun Oct 25 at Catawba Valley YSA See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Highland FC (8th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Charlotte SA White (6th)	1–6	1%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NC Fusion (9th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Highland FC (8th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (4th)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NCFC Youth Elite (2nd)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Charlotte SA White (6th)	0–7	1%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.