NCFC Youth Premier
ECNL Regional League Boys · Carolinas BU14 · 10 teams · NCFC Youth (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
Buncombe County Sports Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.7 against · 1.62 expected points)
| Season so far | NCFC Youth Premier | Catawba Valley YSA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-1 | 5-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.57 | 2.14 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W W | L W L W W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs Villarreal Force Academy | 6–1 at Wilmington Hammerheads |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Charlotte SA Blue | 2–4 vs NCFC Youth Elite |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.34 | +1.18 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.83 | +0.20 |
Common opponents: NCFC Youth Elite — we 2–0; they 2–4. NC Fusion — we 1–0; they 4–1. Wilmington Hammerheads — we 2–0; they 6–1. Charlotte SA White — we 3–2; they 5–1. Charlotte SA Blue — we 1–2; they 4–3.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Catawba Valley YSA score 3.6/game — well above the league's 2.3.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 21% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Buncombe County Sports Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Catawba Valley YSA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NCFC Youth Premier – Catawba Valley YSA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.63 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.63 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.38 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
1st— holds | 3rd▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 48%
- 2nd 27%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
33 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link NCFC Youth Premier to Catawba Valley YSA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.12 · 2nd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
Catawba Valley YSA 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Buncombe County Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.62 | 2.45 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Highland FC 8th · 2-2-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Buncombe County Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 2.01 | 2.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
NC Fusion 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Truist Soccer Complex at Bryan Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–0 | 2.27 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Villarreal Force Academy 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -44 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.94 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 02:00 PM |
Jacksonville Hammerheads FC 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away WRAL |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 2.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 6 11:00 AM |
Jacksonville Hammerheads FC 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home WRAL |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–1 | 2.35 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
Charlotte SA White 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.23 | 2.40 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 TBD |
Charlotte SA Blue 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 2.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
Wilmington Hammerheads 7th · 3-0-5 · GD -6 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.48 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
NCFC Youth Elite 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.37 | 2.31 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Elite 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 02:00 PM |
Catawba Valley YSA 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +11 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
Highland FC 8th · 2-2-4 · GD -3 |
Home WRAL |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
1–0 | 2.21 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
NC Fusion 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–0 | 2.27 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Charlotte SA White 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.96 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Charlotte SA Blue 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.59 | 2.21 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Jacksonville Hammerheads FC 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 2.21 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NCFC Youth Premier | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWL | -0.83 | +0.12 | 99% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Catawba Valley YSA · Sun Oct 25 at Highland FC · Sat Nov 7 at NC Fusion See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | NCFC Youth Elite | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 13 | 2.17 | LWWWW | -0.51 | -0.10 | 99% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 1 vs Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA White · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Charlotte SA Blue | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | DWWWW | -0.44 | -0.11 | 93% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NC Fusion · Sun Oct 25 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at Highland FC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Catawba Valley YSA | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWL | +0.20 | -0.12 | 95% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Force Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA White See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Jacksonville Hammerheads FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 12 | 1.71 | LLWLW | -0.27 | +0.12 | 4% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at NC Fusion · Sat Oct 31 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Nov 21 at Charlotte SA Blue See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Charlotte SA White | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 10 | 1.43 | WLWLW | -0.40 | +0.07 | 9% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sat Oct 31 at Catawba Valley YSA See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 9 | 1.13 | LLLLW | +0.02 | +0.01 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 1 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at NC Fusion · Sat Nov 21 at Charlotte SA White See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Highland FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.40 | +0.00 | 1% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Villarreal Force Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs NCFC Youth Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | NC Fusion | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 1 | 0.20 | DLLLL | +1.08 | -0.12 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Villarreal Force Academy · Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA White See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Villarreal Force Academy | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 45 | -44 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.75 | +0.34 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs NC Fusion · Sat Oct 24 at Highland FC · Sun Oct 25 at Catawba Valley YSA See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.