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DKSC

ECNL Girls · Texas GU13 · 16 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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10th
1-2-1 record · 4 played
1.25 points per game
+2 goal diff · 5–3
WDLDlast 4
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.9
+0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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DKSC
10th · 1.25 PPG
at
West Side Alliance
15th · 0.17 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 9 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.7 against · 2.56 expected points)

Season so farDKSCWest Side Alliance
Position10th15th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-10-1-5
Points per game1.250.17
Goals for / game1.30.5
Goals against / game0.84.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)D L D WD L L L L
Biggest win3–0 at Dallas Texans—
Worst loss0–1 at Real Colorado National0–9 at FC Dallas Youth
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.32-2.46
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.10+0.61

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    West Side Alliance average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    West Side Alliance concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–9 at FC Dallas Youth.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Real Colorado National.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at RiverCity Parks.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Albion Hurricanes FC sit 9th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.25.

    A point moves us above Albion Hurricanes FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC – West Side Alliance) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.60 PPG
8th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 1
Win
1.60 PPG
8th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 1
Draw
1.20 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1
Loss
1.00 PPG
12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
96% below the top 4
7.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 17%
  8. 8th 17%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth 2.60 (+1.35) 1st (2.52) 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 Real Colorado National 2.50 (+1.25) 2nd (2.49) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 FC Westlake 2.38 (+1.13) 3rd (2.13) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 Sting Royal 2.33 (+1.08) 4th (2.07) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
5 Sting Black 1.75 (+0.50) 7th (1.55) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
6 SOLAR SC 1.67 (+0.42) 5th (1.78) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 Challenge SC 1.67 (+0.42) 6th (1.58) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 Lonestar ATX Red 1.50 (+0.25) 12th (1.11) A point next game
9 Albion Hurricanes FC 1.33 (+0.08) 11th (1.19) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC to West Side Alliance through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
0 favour them
+3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 0–1 3–0 2–0 2–2 1–1 1–2 2–0 0–4 6–0 2–0 3–1 1–1 1–3 5–0 0–1 3–0 1–2 0–4 4–1 0–4 9–0 DKSC 10th Real Colorado Natio… 2nd Colorado Storm 11th SOLAR SC 6th Dallas Texans 16th Sting Royal 4th Albion Hurricanes FC 9th Challenge SC 7th Lonestar ATX Red 8th FC Westlake 3rd FC Dallas Youth 1st West Side Alliance 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 14 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 8th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
West Side Alliance
15th · 0-1-5 · GD -25
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
2–0 2.56 1.51 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
OK Energy FC
12th · 2-1-3 · GD +1
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.33 1.48 Upside
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
Colorado Rush
14th · 0-2-4 · GD -8
Home
Clark East Field
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
1–0 2.15 1.58 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM
Real Colorado Athletico
13th · 1-0-6 · GD -16
Home
Clark East Field
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–0 2.41 1.68 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Albion Hurricanes FC
9th · 2-2-2 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–0 1.77 1.69 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Challenge SC
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +8
Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.38 1.66 Upside
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
Sting Royal
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +6
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●○ Tough
27%
0–0 1.14 1.61 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +19
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●● Very tough
13%
0–1 0.60 1.53 Upside
Sat May 1
11:00 AM
FC Westlake
3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +14
Away far trip
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.86 1.48 Upside
Sun May 2
10:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
8th · 4-0-4 · GD -9
Away far trip
St. Andrew's Episcopal School
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
1–1 1.96 1.51 Swing game
Sat May 8
09:00 AM
Sting Black
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Away
Sting National Training Center
●●●●○ Tough
34%
0–0 1.34 1.50 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 5410 201+19 132.60 WWWWD -0.06 -0.19 100% 1.5
2 Real Colorado National 121002 244+20 302.50 WWWWW +0.06 -0.79 100% 1.7
3 FC Westlake 8611 206+14 192.38 DWWWW -0.56 +0.44 82% 3.6
4 Sting Royal 6420 82+6 142.33 WWWWD +0.27 -0.23 70% 4.1
5 Sting Black 4211 43+1 71.75 DWWL -0.02 -0.00 6% 7.5
6 SOLAR SC 6312 198+11 101.67 LWWLW -0.07 -0.09 27% 5.6
7 Challenge SC 6312 168+8 101.67 DLWWL -0.56 +0.29 7% 7.1
8 Lonestar ATX Red 8404 1221-9 121.50 WWWWL -0.56 +0.73 0% 11.2
9 Albion Hurricanes FC 6222 88+0 81.33 WLLWD -0.56 +0.38 0% 10.5
10 DKSC 4121 53+2 51.25 WDLD +0.10 -0.05 5% 7.9
11 Colorado Storm 11416 1619-3 131.18 LWLLD +0.18 -0.42 0% 10.1
12 OK Energy FC 6213 1110+1 71.17 DLLLW +0.61 -0.45 4% 7.5
13 Real Colorado Athletico 7106 622-16 30.43 LLLWL +0.15 +0.05 0% 13.8
14 Colorado Rush 6024 412-8 20.33 DDLLL +0.03 +0.02 0% 13.4
15 West Side Alliance 6015 328-25 10.17 LLLLD +0.61 -0.14 0% 15.2
16 Dallas Texans 7007 223-21 00.00 LLLLL +0.42 -0.12 0% 15.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.