TableChase Clubs

Colorado Storm

ECNL Girls · Texas GU13 · 16 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)

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11th
4-1-6 record · 11 played
1.18 points per game
-3 goal diff · 16–19
LWLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.0
+0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM

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Colorado Storm
11th · 1.18 PPG
at
Real Colorado National
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Real Colorado Soccer Complex, RCSC 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.5 for, 2.2 against · 0.40 expected points)

Season so farColorado StormReal Colorado National
Position11th2nd
Record (W-D-L)4-1-610-0-2
Points per game1.182.50
Goals for / game1.52.0
Goals against / game1.70.3
Clean sheets29
Held scoreless42
Form (recent first)D L L W LW W W W W
Biggest win4–0 vs Real Colorado Athletico5–0 vs Real Colorado Athletico
Worst loss0–4 at FC Dallas Youth0–2 at FC Dallas Youth
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.20+1.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.18+0.06

Common opponents: Real Colorado Athletico — we 4–0; they 5–0. Lonestar ATX Red — we 4–1; they 2–0. FC Westlake — we 0–1; they 2–0. FC Dallas Youth — we 0–4; they 0–2. Sting Royal — we 1–2; they 0–1. Albion Hurricanes FC — we 2–0; they 2–0. Challenge SC — we 0–4; they 3–0. Dallas Texans — we 3–1; they 1–0. SOLAR SC — we 0–3; they 3–1. Sting Black — we 1–2; they 2–0. DKSC — we 1–1; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Real Colorado National concede only 0.3/game with 9 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–1 vs FC Westlake, 0–4 at FC Dallas Youth, 0–4 vs Challenge SC, 0–3 at SOLAR SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 8%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Real Colorado National have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Real Colorado Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    DKSC sit 10th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.18.

    A point moves us above DKSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado National game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm – Real Colorado National) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.08 PPG
12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1
Win
1.33 PPG
10th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Draw
1.17 PPG
12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1
Loss
1.08 PPG
12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 20%
  10. 10th 33%
  11. 11th 26%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth 2.60 (+1.42) 1st (2.52) 26 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Real Colorado National 2.50 (+1.32) 2nd (2.49) 25 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Westlake 2.38 (+1.20) 3rd (2.13) 23 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Royal 2.33 (+1.15) 4th (2.07) 22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Sting Black 1.75 (+0.57) 7th (1.55) 14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
6 SOLAR SC 1.67 (+0.49) 5th (1.78) 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Challenge SC 1.67 (+0.49) 6th (1.58) 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
8 Lonestar ATX Red 1.50 (+0.32) 12th (1.11) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection
9 Albion Hurricanes FC 1.33 (+0.15) 11th (1.19) A point next game
10 DKSC 1.25 (+0.07) 9th (1.50) A point next game

How the results connect

44 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Colorado Storm to Real Colorado National through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
7 even
28 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–2 1–2 1–0 1–1 0–1 3–1 0–1 4–1 0–2 4–0 0–5 0–4 2–0 1–2 0–2 0–1 0–2 0–3 1–3 0–4 0–3 0–0 Colorado Storm 11th Albion Hurricanes FC 9th Sting Royal 4th DKSC 10th Dallas Texans 16th Lonestar ATX Red 8th Real Colorado Athle… 13th FC Dallas Youth 1st Sting Black 5th FC Westlake 3rd SOLAR SC 6th Challenge SC 7th Real Colorado Natio… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 14 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.42 · 14th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Real Colorado National
2nd · 10-0-2 · GD +20
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.40 1.12 Upside
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
West Side Alliance
15th · 0-1-5 · GD -25
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–1 2.41 1.22 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
09:00 AM
OK Energy FC
12th · 2-1-3 · GD +1
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.95 1.20 Upside
Sat Feb 20
09:00 AM
Colorado Rush
14th · 0-2-4 · GD -8
Home
Regis University · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
1–0 1.94 1.25 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 5410 201+19 132.60 WWWWD -0.06 -0.19 99% 1.6
2 Real Colorado National 121002 244+20 302.50 WWWWW +0.06 -0.79 100% 1.7
3 FC Westlake 8611 206+14 192.38 DWWWW -0.56 +0.44 82% 3.6
4 Sting Royal 6420 82+6 142.33 WWWWD +0.27 -0.23 71% 4.0
5 Sting Black 4211 43+1 71.75 DWWL -0.02 -0.00 6% 7.6
6 SOLAR SC 6312 198+11 101.67 LWWLW -0.07 -0.09 25% 5.6
7 Challenge SC 6312 168+8 101.67 DLWWL -0.56 +0.29 7% 7.2
8 Lonestar ATX Red 8404 1221-9 121.50 WWWWL -0.56 +0.73 0% 11.2
9 Albion Hurricanes FC 6222 88+0 81.33 WLLWD -0.56 +0.38 0% 10.4
10 DKSC 4121 53+2 51.25 WDLD +0.10 -0.05 4% 7.8
11 Colorado Storm 11416 1619-3 131.18 LWLLD +0.18 -0.42 0% 10.0
12 OK Energy FC 6213 1110+1 71.17 DLLLW +0.61 -0.45 4% 7.5
13 Real Colorado Athletico 7106 622-16 30.43 LLLWL +0.15 +0.05 0% 13.8
14 Colorado Rush 6024 412-8 20.33 DDLLL +0.03 +0.02 0% 13.3
15 West Side Alliance 6015 328-25 10.17 LLLLD +0.61 -0.14 0% 15.2
16 Dallas Texans 7007 223-21 00.00 LLLLL +0.42 -0.12 0% 15.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.