Ohio Premier

ECNL Girls · Ohio Valley GU14 · 12 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)

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2nd

4-0-1 record · 5 played

2.40 points per game

+8 goal diff · 13–5

WLWWWlast 5

90% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6

-0.35 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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Ohio Premier
2nd · 2.40 PPG

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1st · 2.43 PPG

Montour Junction Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

24% 24% 53%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.7 against · 0.94 expected points)

Season so far	Ohio Premier	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-1	5-2-0
Points per game	2.40	2.43
Goals for / game	2.6	2.4
Goals against / game	1.0	0.6
Clean sheets	3	4
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W L W	W W W D W
Biggest win	7–2 at Racing Louisville Academy	5–0 at Internationals SC
Worst loss	2–3 at Ohio Elite SA	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.89	+1.21
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.35	-0.11

Common opponents: Racing Louisville Academy — we 7–2; they 4–2. Ohio Elite SA — we 2–3; they 1–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Pittsburgh Riverhounds score 2.4/game — well above the league's 1.6.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Pittsburgh Riverhounds concede only 0.6/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Pittsburgh Riverhounds have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 10:30 AM at Montour Junction Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit 1st on 2.43 PPG; we are on 2.40.
A point moves us above Pittsburgh Riverhounds on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pittsburgh Riverhounds game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier – Pittsburgh Riverhounds) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.17 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	5th▼ down 3
Win 2.50 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Draw 2.17 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	5th▼ down 3
Loss 2.00 PPG	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

20% finish 1st

90% top 4

10% below the top 4

2.6 average finish

1st 20%
2nd 43%
3rd 18%
4th 9%
5th 5%
6th 3%
7th 1%
8th 1%
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2.43 (+0.03)	1st (2.26)	A point next game

How the results connect

22 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Ohio Premier to Pittsburgh Riverhounds through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

14 favour them

-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 9th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:30 AM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +13	Away far trip Montour Junction Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–1	0.94	2.16	Upside
Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM	WNY Flash 12th · 0-1-6 · GD -14	Away far trip Flash Fields	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	2–0	2.50	2.21	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	Cleveland Force SC 4th · 4-2-1 · GD +7	Home OP Training Facility	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–1	1.80	2.16	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 12:45 PM	Internationals SC 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +3	Home OP Training Facility	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	2.00	2.14	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 12:45 PM	FC Pride Elite 8th · 3-0-3 · GD +0	Home OP Training Facility	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.13	2.14	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM	Indy Eleven 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3	Home OP Training Facility	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.87	2.11	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	GTFC Impact 6th · 4-1-2 · GD +4	Away	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.49	2.06	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +13	Home	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.17	1.99	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	WNY Flash 12th · 0-1-6 · GD -14	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	3–0	2.65	2.04	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 10:45 AM	Internationals SC 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +3	Away far trip Pinnacle Sports	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–1	1.73	2.02	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 12:30 PM	Cleveland Force SC 4th · 4-2-1 · GD +7	Away far trip Victory Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–1	1.52	1.99	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Racing Louisville Academy 10th · 1-1-5 · GD -10	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	4–1	2.54	2.02	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Ohio Elite SA 7th · 3-2-2 · GD +3	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.90	2.01	Swing game
Sat May 1 TBD	FC Alliance TN 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -7	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	1–0	2.18	2.02	Swing game
Sun May 2 TBD	Tennessee SC 11th · 0-1-6 · GD -10	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	2–0	2.34	2.04	Bank it
Sat May 15 10:45 AM	FC Pride Elite 8th · 3-0-3 · GD +0	Away far trip FC Pride Performance Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–1	1.87	2.03	Swing game
Sun May 16 11:00 AM	Indy Eleven 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3	Away far trip Grand Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	1–1	1.61	2.01	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

+13

2.43

WDWWW

-0.11

-0.09

99%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact · Sat Nov 7 at FC Alliance TN See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	WNY Flash (12th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–0	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–0	82%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–0	63%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	2–0	68%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	2–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier

2.40

WLWWW

-0.35

+0.01

90%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	7–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash · Sat Oct 31 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	WNY Flash (12th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	4–1	81%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun May 2	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun May 16	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Internationals SC

2.14

LWWWW

-0.21

+0.10

29%

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Pride Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Indy Eleven · Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	2–2	55%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	1–1	59%
·	Sat May 1	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 15	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–2	14%
·	Sun May 16	at	WNY Flash (12th)	2–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force SC

2.00

WDLDW

-0.26

+0.07

53%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	4–3
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	3–4
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Indy Eleven · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Oct 31 at Ohio Premier See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–2	38%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	2–1	52%
·	Sat May 15	at	WNY Flash (12th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun May 16	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven

2.00

WWWWL

-0.21

+0.06

39%

5.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cleveland Force SC · Sun Oct 25 at Internationals SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Elite SA See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat May 1	at	WNY Flash (12th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun May 2	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–1	16%
·	Sat May 15	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact

1.86

LWLDW

-0.15

+0.03

43%

4.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 31 vs Internationals SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash (12th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat May 1	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0	52%
·	Sat May 15	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 16	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA

1.57

WWLDL

+0.16

-0.10

40%

5.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	3–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	WNY Flash (12th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Nov 1 at Indy Eleven See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	2–1	41%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	3–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite

1.50

WWLLW

-0.16

+0.08

7.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Internationals SC · Sun Oct 25 at Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	3–2	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–0	64%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat May 1	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sun May 2	at	WNY Flash (12th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun May 16	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Alliance TN

-7

0.86

LLWLL

+0.19

+0.02

9.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 7 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–1	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	1–0	45%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	0–0	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	WNY Flash (12th)	1–0	38%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	0–1	13%
·	Sun May 2	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	0–1	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Racing Louisville Academy

-10

0.57

LLWLL

+0.33

-0.03

9.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	4–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	2–7
D	Sun Sep 20	at	WNY Flash (12th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	2–2	28%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	1–4	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun May 2	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC

-10

0.14

LLLDL

+0.23

+0.04

11.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 17	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Oct 25 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash (12th)	1–0	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	0–2	17%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	0–0	34%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	1–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	WNY Flash (12th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash

-14

0.14

LLLLL

+0.25

+0.07

11.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Internationals SC (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Nov 7 at Tennessee SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact (6th)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Premier (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Tennessee SC (11th)	0–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Alliance TN (9th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	GTFC Impact (6th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Ohio Premier (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Ohio Elite SA (7th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Racing Louisville Academy (10th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Tennessee SC (11th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Alliance TN (9th)	0–1	30%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Internationals SC (3rd)	0–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.60 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.