Ohio Elite SA
ECNL Girls · Ohio Valley GU14 · 12 teams · Ohio Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM
Ohio Elite Training Center, Field 11 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.9 against · 2.32 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Elite SA | Tennessee SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-2 | 0-1-6 |
| Points per game | 1.57 | 0.14 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L W W | L D L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–2 at WNY Flash | — |
| Worst loss | 3–4 at Racing Louisville Academy | 0–3 at Internationals SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.36 | -0.91 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.16 | +0.23 |
Common opponents: GTFC Impact — we 3–1; they 1–1. Ohio Premier — we 3–2; they 0–2. Cleveland Force SC — we 1–1; they 1–2. Internationals SC — we 0–1; they 0–3.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Tennessee SC average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Internationals SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Tennessee SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Elite SA – Tennessee SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.75 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.38 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 7%
- 3rd 15%
- 4th 17%
- 5th 20%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 15%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.55 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2.43 (+0.86) | 1st (2.26) | 43 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 2 | Ohio Premier | 2.40 (+0.83) | 2nd (2.01) | 42 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 3 | Internationals SC | 2.14 (+0.57) | 7th (1.62) | 37 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 4 | Cleveland Force SC | 2.00 (+0.43) | 3rd (1.73) | 33 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 5 | Indy Eleven | 2.00 (+0.43) | 5th (1.67) | 33 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 6 | GTFC Impact | 1.86 (+0.29) | 4th (1.68) | 30 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
How the results connect
26 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link Ohio Elite SA to Tennessee SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 12th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM |
Tennessee SC 11th · 0-1-6 · GD -10 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.32 | 1.66 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 11:30 AM |
FC Alliance TN 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -7 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
1–0 | 2.15 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Indy Eleven 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Grand Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.27 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 12:30 PM |
FC Pride Elite 8th · 3-0-3 · GD +0 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.81 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Tennessee SC 11th · 0-1-6 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–0 | 2.11 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–0 | 1.95 | 1.74 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 11:45 AM |
FC Pride Elite 8th · 3-0-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–1 | 1.52 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 11:30 AM |
Cleveland Force SC 4th · 4-2-1 · GD +7 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–1 | 1.44 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:30 AM |
Internationals SC 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.66 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:30 AM |
WNY Flash 12th · 0-1-6 · GD -14 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.48 | 1.75 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 11:30 AM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +13 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–1 | 0.86 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:30 AM |
Indy Eleven 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
GTFC Impact 6th · 4-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.18 | 1.66 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Ohio Premier 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 1.63 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:30 PM |
Racing Louisville Academy 10th · 1-1-5 · GD -10 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.26 | 1.66 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWWW | -0.11 | -0.09 | 99% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact · Sat Nov 7 at FC Alliance TN See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Ohio Premier | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.35 | +0.01 | 89% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash · Sat Oct 31 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Internationals SC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | -0.21 | +0.10 | 29% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Pride Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Indy Eleven · Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Cleveland Force SC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | WDLDW | -0.26 | +0.07 | 52% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Indy Eleven · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Oct 31 at Ohio Premier See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Indy Eleven | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 | 2.00 | WWWWL | -0.21 | +0.06 | 41% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cleveland Force SC · Sun Oct 25 at Internationals SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Elite SA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | GTFC Impact | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 13 | 1.86 | LWLDW | -0.15 | +0.03 | 44% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 31 vs Internationals SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 | 1.57 | WWLDL | +0.16 | -0.10 | 40% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Nov 1 at Indy Eleven See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC Pride Elite | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 9 | 1.50 | WWLLW | -0.16 | +0.08 | 6% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Internationals SC · Sun Oct 25 at Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Alliance TN | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 6 | 0.86 | LLWLL | +0.19 | +0.02 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 7 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Racing Louisville Academy | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWLL | +0.33 | -0.03 | 0% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Tennessee SC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLDL | +0.23 | +0.04 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Oct 25 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | WNY Flash | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLLL | +0.25 | +0.07 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Nov 7 at Tennessee SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.60 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.