FC Stars Blue
ECNL Girls · New England GU13 · 9 teams · FC Stars (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM
FC Stars Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.3 for, 0.9 against · 1.66 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Stars Blue | Select |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-0 | 2-2-0 |
| Points per game | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W D W | D D W W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs FSA FC | 4–1 at FC Stars White |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.85 | +0.47 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.48 | -0.27 |
Common opponents: Scorpions SC — we 1–1; they 1–0. SUSA FC — we 2–0; they 1–1. East Meadow Soccer Club — we 2–1; they 0–0. FC Stars White — we 1–0; they 4–1.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Select concede only 0.5/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 29% / loss 26%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Select game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Stars Blue – Select) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.17 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 3 | 4th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 43%
- 2nd 36%
- 3rd 15%
- 4th 5%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
15 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link FC Stars Blue to Select through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.05 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM |
Select 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Home FC Stars Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–0 | 1.66 | 2.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
World Class FC 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
0–1 | 1.12 | 2.25 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 TBD |
Connecticut FC United 6th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–0 | 1.79 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
FC Stars White 5th · 2-2-2 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–0 | 2.24 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Scorpions SC 4th · 2-2-1 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–0 | 1.49 | 2.13 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Select 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–0 | 1.45 | 2.07 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
SUSA FC 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.41 | 2.10 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
East Meadow Soccer Club 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -6 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 2.12 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Connecticut FC United 6th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 2.01 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
World Class FC 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 2.06 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 08:30 AM |
FSA FC 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.63 | 2.10 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Stars Blue | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 13 | 2.60 | WDWWW | -0.48 | +0.05 | 99% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC · Sun Nov 8 at Connecticut FC United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | World Class FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.67 | +0.04 | 98% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Stars White · Sat Nov 14 at Select See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Select | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 | 2.00 | WWDD | -0.27 | -0.01 | 84% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC · Sat Nov 14 vs World Class FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Scorpions SC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 | 1.60 | DDLWW | -0.05 | -0.08 | 74% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Select · Sat Nov 14 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 15 vs World Class FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Stars White | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | DWWDL | -0.15 | +0.11 | 9% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC · Sat Feb 27 at FC Stars Blue See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Connecticut FC United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 | 1.00 | D | +0.96 | -0.09 | 35% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SUSA FC · Sun Oct 25 at East Meadow Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at FSA FC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | SUSA FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | 0.40 | LLDDL | +0.49 | -0.13 | 0% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Oct 25 vs FSA FC · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | East Meadow Soccer Club | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +0.49 | -0.13 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FSA FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FSA FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.57 | +0.08 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Meadow Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at SUSA FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Connecticut FC United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.