Michigan Hawks
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU14 · 8 teams · Michigan Hawks (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Avondale High School, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.2 for, 0.8 against · 2.59 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Hawks | Liverpool FC MI |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-1-0 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.75 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 3.4 |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W W | W L D |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Michigan Hawks Magic | 3–1 vs Michigan Hawks Magic |
| Worst loss | — | 1–6 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.80 | -0.51 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.36 | -1.54 |
Common opponents: Michigan Hawks Magic — we 5–0; they 3–1.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Liverpool FC MI concede 3.4/game; worst result 1–6 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Avondale High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC MI game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Hawks – Liverpool FC MI) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.78 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.78 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.56 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.44 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 91%
- 2nd 8%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
5 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Hawks to Liverpool FC MI through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Liverpool FC MI 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Avondale High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.59 | 2.73 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 08:00 AM |
Nationals SC 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +13 |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 2.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 10:00 AM |
Liverpool FC MI 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -10 |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.73 | 2.65 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 PM |
Michigan Hawks Magic 7th · 1-2-7 · GD -23 |
Away Schoolcraft Turf · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
3–0 | 2.83 | 2.66 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
MN Thunder Academy |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.52 | 2.65 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Chicago Inter 5th · 2-2-3 · GD +6 |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.51 | 2.64 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM |
FC Wisconsin 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -17 |
Home Schoolcraft Turf · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
3–0 | 2.88 | 2.66 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Nationals SC 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +13 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.55 | 2.59 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 10:00 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 2nd · 3-3-0 · GD +13 |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.06 | 2.56 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 4th · 2-3-2 · GD +3 |
Home Schoolcraft Turf · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.51 | 2.55 | Bank it |
| Sun May 16 10:00 AM |
Sporting Iowa |
Home Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.52 | 2.55 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Hawks | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 2 | +24 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWDW | -0.36 | -0.01 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Dec 5 vs Nationals SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Liverpool FC MI See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 12 | 2.00 | DWDW | +0.02 | -0.08 | 100% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs Nationals SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 10 | 2.00 | LDW | -1.54 | -0.01 | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC MI · Sat Oct 31 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Rockford Raptors FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 | 1.29 | WDLDL | +0.42 | +0.03 | 43% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 at Nationals SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Chicago Inter | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 8 | 1.14 | WDLLD | +0.42 | +0.00 | 51% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC · Sun Nov 1 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Liverpool FC MI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 4 | 0.80 | DLW | -1.54 | +0.26 | 6% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 29 | -23 | 5 | 0.50 | WDLDL | +0.30 | +0.24 | 0% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Nationals SC · Sat Mar 20 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Apr 10 vs Liverpool FC MI See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC Wisconsin | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 18 | -17 | 1 | 0.14 | DLLLL | +0.13 | +0.28 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 at Liverpool FC MI See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.62 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.