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FC Dallas Youth White

ECNL Boys · Texas BU17 · 20 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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6th
4-2-1 record · 7 played
2.00 points per game
+4 goal diff · 14–10
LWDWDlast 5
33% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.7
-0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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FC Dallas Youth White
6th · 2.00 PPG
vs
Real Colorado Academy
3rd · 2.25 PPG

Toyota Soccer Center, Field 12 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.6 against · 1.27 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth WhiteReal Colorado Academy
Position6th3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-2-16-0-2
Points per game2.002.25
Goals for / game2.02.3
Goals against / game1.40.9
Clean sheets14
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)D W D W LW L W L W
Biggest win4–1 at Dallas Texans4–0 vs Lonestar ATX Royal
Worst loss0–3 at FC Dallas Youth Red0–2 at Solar SC Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.44+0.78
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.07-0.51

Common opponents: Lonestar ATX Red — we 2–0; they 2–0. Lonestar ATX Royal — we 2–2; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at FC Dallas Youth Red.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    FC Dallas Youth Red sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth White – Real Colorado Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.88 PPG
6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 7th▼ down 1
Win
2.13 PPG
4th▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 3 5th▲ up 1
Draw
1.88 PPG
6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.75 PPG
8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
33% top 4
67% below the top 4
5.7 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 6%
  3. 3rd 12%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SAFC 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.48) 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 Sting 2.25 (+0.25) 2nd (2.10) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 Real Colorado Academy 2.25 (+0.25) 4th (1.92) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4 Colorado Storm 2.13 (+0.13) 5th (1.87) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 FC Dallas Youth Red 2.00 (+0.00) 3rd (1.98) A point next game

How the results connect

25 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth White to Real Colorado Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
3 even
10 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–2 2–2 0–4 2–1 1–0 2–4 3–1 2–2 4–2 1–2 3–0 5–0 2–0 3–0 0–3 4–0 1–1 3–1 FC Dallas Youth Whi… 6th Lonestar ATX Red 15th Lonestar ATX Royal 20th DKSC 7th Sting 2nd FC Dallas Youth Red 5th Tulsa SC 11th OK Energy FC Academy 16th Real Colorado Acade… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 11th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:00 AM
Real Colorado Academy
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +11
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.27 1.91 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Colorado Storm
4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.28 1.84 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
OK Energy FC Academy
16th · 4-1-7 · GD -2
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.86 1.84 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
TBD
SAFC
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +19
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.72 1.74 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
San Antonio City SC
19th · 1-1-6 · GD -15
Away far trip
Specht Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.33 1.79 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
11:00 AM
Tulsa SC
11th · 4-2-5 · GD -1
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.81 1.79 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
RISE SC
13th · 3-0-5 · GD -3
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.96 1.80 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM
Albion Hurricanes FC
14th · 3-0-5 · GD -4
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.00 1.82 Swing game
Sat May 1
09:00 AM
Solar SC Academy
8th · 5-1-3 · GD +0
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.74 1.81 Swing game
Sun May 2
01:00 PM
SOLAR SC
18th · 1-2-6 · GD -14
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.42 1.85 Bank it
Sat May 8
11:00 AM
HTX
10th · 3-1-3 · GD -1
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.89 1.85 Swing game
Sun May 9
09:00 AM
FC Westlake
12th · 2-2-3 · GD +3
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 1.84 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SAFC 8800 2910+19 243.00 WWWWW -0.36 +0.12 99% 1.3
2 Sting 8530 2410+14 182.25 WWWDD -0.14 +0.05 85% 3.0
3 Real Colorado Academy 8602 187+11 182.25 WLWLW -0.51 +0.34 49% 4.7
4 Colorado Storm 8521 219+12 172.13 WDLWW -0.51 +0.33 44% 5.1
5 FC Dallas Youth Red 8512 2010+10 162.00 WWWDL -0.13 +0.03 66% 4.1
6 FC Dallas Youth White 7421 1410+4 142.00 LWDWD -0.07 +0.02 33% 5.7
7 DKSC 10604 1612+4 181.80 LWLLW +0.06 -0.03 10% 7.3
8 Solar SC Academy 9513 1515+0 161.78 LWWDW +0.19 -0.15 8% 8.1
9 Dallas Texans Academy 7313 1412+2 101.43 WWDLL +0.04 -0.04 3% 9.6
10 HTX 7313 1213-1 101.43 LDWWL -0.11 +0.08 1% 11.9
11 Tulsa SC 11425 1819-1 141.27 WLWWL +0.09 -0.09 0% 11.4
12 FC Westlake 7223 1512+3 81.14 LDLDW -0.11 +0.05 2% 10.8
13 RISE SC 8305 1013-3 91.13 LLLWW -0.18 +0.17 0% 14.4
14 Albion Hurricanes FC 8305 1014-4 91.13 LWLWL +0.19 -0.09 0% 14.0
15 Lonestar ATX Red 9315 1016-6 101.11 WWLLW +0.21 -0.16 0% 14.3
16 OK Energy FC Academy 12417 2123-2 131.08 LWLLL +0.17 -0.23 0% 12.7
17 Dallas Texans 7214 814-6 71.00 LWDLW +0.09 -0.01 0% 14.9
18 SOLAR SC 9126 721-14 50.56 DLLLL +0.11 +0.05 0% 18.3
19 San Antonio City SC 8116 318-15 40.50 LWLLL +0.07 +0.12 0% 18.7
20 Lonestar ATX Royal 9018 532-27 10.11 LLLDL +0.41 -0.16 0% 19.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.