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Dallas Texans Academy

ECNL Boys · Texas BU17 · 20 teams · Dallas Texans (all teams)

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9th
3-1-3 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
+2 goal diff · 14–12
WWDLLlast 5
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.6
+0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Dallas Texans Academy
9th · 1.43 PPG
at
Tulsa SC
11th · 1.27 PPG

Jenks Sports Complex , Field 9 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.8 against · 1.38 expected points)

Season so farDallas Texans AcademyTulsa SC
Position9th11th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-34-2-5
Points per game1.431.27
Goals for / game2.01.6
Goals against / game1.71.7
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)L L D W WL W W L W
Biggest win3–0 vs Solar SC Academy4–0 vs San Antonio City SC
Worst loss1–3 at RISE SC0–4 vs SAFC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.19-0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.04+0.09

Common opponents: DKSC — we 2–0; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 39%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Jenks Sports Complex .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Tulsa SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Texans Academy – Tulsa SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.38 PPG
10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 13th▼ down 4
Win
1.63 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Draw
1.38 PPG
10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 13th▼ down 4
Loss
1.25 PPG
11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2 14th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
9.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 8%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 3%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th 1%
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SAFC 3.00 (+1.57) 1st (2.48) 47 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Sting 2.25 (+0.82) 2nd (2.10) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 Real Colorado Academy 2.25 (+0.82) 4th (1.92) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 Colorado Storm 2.13 (+0.70) 5th (1.87) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 FC Dallas Youth Red 2.00 (+0.57) 3rd (1.98) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 FC Dallas Youth White 2.00 (+0.57) 6th (1.84) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 DKSC 1.80 (+0.37) 7th (1.68) 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 Solar SC Academy 1.78 (+0.35) 8th (1.64) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

29 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link Dallas Texans Academy to Tulsa SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us
2 even
8 favour them
+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 2–1 3–0 2–1 0–4 3–2 0–2 3–4 0–2 2–0 1–3 4–0 1–2 1–1 2–3 2–2 1–2 2–1 2–2 3–1 2–4 3–3 1–3 0–2 Dallas Texans Acade… 9th DKSC 7th Solar SC Academy 8th FC Dallas Youth Red 5th Albion Hurricanes FC 14th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 6th RISE SC 13th San Antonio City SC 19th Colorado Storm 4th SAFC 1st Sting 2nd HTX 10th Lonestar ATX Royal 20th Tulsa SC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 14th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Tulsa SC
11th · 4-2-5 · GD -1
Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.38 1.42 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
OK Energy FC Academy
16th · 4-1-7 · GD -2
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.42 1.42 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Royal
20th · 0-1-8 · GD -27
Home
Beacon Park
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.68 1.55 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
15th · 3-1-5 · GD -6
Home
Beacon Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.94 1.58 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
02:00 PM
FC Westlake
12th · 2-2-3 · GD +3
Home
Memorial High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–1 1.50 1.58 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
HTX
10th · 3-1-3 · GD -1
Home
Memorial High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.74 1.59 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:15 AM
Real Colorado Academy
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +11
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.86 1.54 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Colorado Storm
4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12
Away far trip
Regis University · turf
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 1.49 Upside
Sat Apr 17
12:00 PM
SAFC
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +19
Home
Memorial High School
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.79 1.45 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
San Antonio City SC
19th · 1-1-6 · GD -15
Home
Memorial High School
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
2–0 2.45 1.51 Bank it
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
Sting
2nd · 5-3-0 · GD +14
Away
Sting National Training Center
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.72 1.46 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
SOLAR SC
18th · 1-2-6 · GD -14
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 1.50 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SAFC 8800 2910+19 243.00 WWWWW -0.36 +0.12 99% 1.3
2 Sting 8530 2410+14 182.25 WWWDD -0.14 +0.05 85% 3.0
3 Real Colorado Academy 8602 187+11 182.25 WLWLW -0.51 +0.34 49% 4.7
4 Colorado Storm 8521 219+12 172.13 WDLWW -0.51 +0.33 44% 5.1
5 FC Dallas Youth Red 8512 2010+10 162.00 WWWDL -0.13 +0.03 66% 4.1
6 FC Dallas Youth White 7421 1410+4 142.00 LWDWD -0.07 +0.02 33% 5.7
7 DKSC 10604 1612+4 181.80 LWLLW +0.06 -0.03 10% 7.3
8 Solar SC Academy 9513 1515+0 161.78 LWWDW +0.19 -0.15 8% 8.1
9 Dallas Texans Academy 7313 1412+2 101.43 WWDLL +0.04 -0.04 3% 9.6
10 HTX 7313 1213-1 101.43 LDWWL -0.11 +0.08 1% 11.9
11 Tulsa SC 11425 1819-1 141.27 WLWWL +0.09 -0.09 0% 11.4
12 FC Westlake 7223 1512+3 81.14 LDLDW -0.11 +0.05 2% 10.8
13 RISE SC 8305 1013-3 91.13 LLLWW -0.18 +0.17 0% 14.4
14 Albion Hurricanes FC 8305 1014-4 91.13 LWLWL +0.19 -0.09 0% 14.0
15 Lonestar ATX Red 9315 1016-6 101.11 WWLLW +0.21 -0.16 0% 14.3
16 OK Energy FC Academy 12417 2123-2 131.08 LWLLL +0.17 -0.23 0% 12.7
17 Dallas Texans 7214 814-6 71.00 LWDLW +0.09 -0.01 0% 14.9
18 SOLAR SC 9126 721-14 50.56 DLLLL +0.11 +0.05 0% 18.3
19 San Antonio City SC 8116 318-15 40.50 LWLLL +0.07 +0.12 0% 18.7
20 Lonestar ATX Royal 9018 532-27 10.11 LLLDL +0.41 -0.16 0% 19.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.