GSA
ECNL Boys · Southeast BU13 · 9 teams · Gwinnett Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 21, 11:00 AM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.2 against · 1.44 expected points)
| Season so far | GSA | United Futbol Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-4 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W L | W W L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at South Carolina Surf | 1–0 at CESA Triumph |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs Atlanta Fire United | 0–3 vs Atlanta Fire United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.43 | -0.27 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.14 | -0.13 |
Common opponents: Atlanta Fire United — we 0–3; they 0–3. NTH NASA — we 1–2; they 0–1. South Carolina United — we 3–2; they 2–1. CESA Triumph — we 1–2; they 1–0.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
United Futbol Academy average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 2 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Atlanta Fire United, 0–3 at Concorde Fire Premier.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
CESA Triumph sit 7th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above CESA Triumph on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the United Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GSA – United Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Win 1.29 PPG |
6th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.86 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 9%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 18%
- 7th 22%
- 8th 24%
- 9th 11%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 2.40 (+1.40) | 1st (2.37) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Atlanta Fire United | 2.25 (+1.25) | 2nd (2.11) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 3 | Concorde Fire Premier | 1.80 (+0.80) | 3rd (1.77) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | United Futbol Academy | 1.50 (+0.50) | 4th (1.25) | 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 5 | NTH NASA | 1.50 (+0.50) | 6th (1.20) | 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 6 | South Carolina United | 1.50 (+0.50) | 5th (1.23) | 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 7 | CESA Triumph | 1.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.10) | A point next game |
How the results connect
10 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link GSA to United Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.15 · 1st hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.44 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.32 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 03:00 PM |
CESA Triumph 7th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 09:00 AM |
NTH NASA 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away Metro North Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Atlanta Fire United 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.52 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 1.07 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.95 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
South Carolina United 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.57 | 1.10 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.46 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away Fowler Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 1.06 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.06 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Atlanta Fire United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | +0.38 | -0.25 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTH NASA · Sat Nov 21 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 22 vs CESA Triumph See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Concorde Fire Premier | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | +0.17 | -0.16 | 93% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Jan 24 at South Carolina Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | United Futbol Academy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 | 1.50 | LLWW | -0.13 | +0.07 | 30% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | NTH NASA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.38 | -0.02 | 24% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 21 vs CESA Triumph · Sun Nov 22 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | South Carolina United | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLLW | -0.03 | +0.08 | 25% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 22 at NTH NASA · Sat Feb 13 at South Carolina Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | CESA Triumph | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.41 | +0.13 | 16% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 21 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 22 at Atlanta Fire United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GSA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLWL | -0.14 | +0.15 | 11% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Mar 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Mar 13 vs CESA Triumph See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.05 | +0.08 | 1% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 vs United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.