Concorde Fire Platinum
ECNL Boys · Southeast BU13 · 9 teams · Concorde Fire (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Georgia Sports Park , field 2 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.2 for, 0.7 against · 2.67 expected points)
| Season so far | Concorde Fire Platinum | South Carolina Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W W | L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs South Carolina United | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Atlanta Fire United | 0–3 vs GSA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.43 | -0.78 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.06 | +0.05 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 1–0 at South Carolina Surf (W)
Common opponents: South Carolina United — we 6–0; they 2–3.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
South Carolina Surf average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 2 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
South Carolina Surf concede 2.3/game; worst result 0–3 vs GSA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
South Carolina Surf have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Concorde Fire Platinum – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 76%
- 2nd 21%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
7 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Concorde Fire Platinum to South Carolina Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.22 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.67 | 2.45 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
2–0 | 2.41 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 2.40 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM |
CESA Triumph 7th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.39 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Fowler Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.23 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
GSA 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -4 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–0 | 2.57 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 11:00 AM |
CESA Triumph 7th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
1–0 | 2.21 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 11:00 AM |
South Carolina United 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 2.39 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 10:00 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 2.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
GSA 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Rabbit Hill Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
2–0 | 2.39 | 2.35 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 10:00 AM |
NTH NASA 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.59 | 2.37 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.06 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Atlanta Fire United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | +0.38 | -0.25 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTH NASA · Sat Nov 21 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 22 vs CESA Triumph See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Concorde Fire Premier | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | +0.17 | -0.16 | 93% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Jan 24 at South Carolina Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | United Futbol Academy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 | 1.50 | LLWW | -0.13 | +0.07 | 30% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | NTH NASA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.38 | -0.02 | 24% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 21 vs CESA Triumph · Sun Nov 22 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | South Carolina United | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLLW | -0.03 | +0.08 | 26% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 22 at NTH NASA · Sat Feb 13 at South Carolina Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | CESA Triumph | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.41 | +0.13 | 16% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 21 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 22 at Atlanta Fire United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GSA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLWL | -0.14 | +0.15 | 10% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Mar 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Mar 13 vs CESA Triumph See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.05 | +0.08 | 1% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 vs United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.