Manhattan SC

ECNL Boys · New England BU16 · 6 teams · Manhattan SC (all teams)

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4th

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

65% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Dec 12, TBD

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Manhattan SC
4th · 0.00 PPG

East Coast Surf SC
2nd · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

35% 18% 47%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so far	Manhattan SC	East Coast Surf SC
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	0-0-0
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.0	0.0
Goals against / game	0.0	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	—
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
East Coast Surf SC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
East Meadow Soccer Club sit 3rd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above East Meadow Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Coast Surf SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Manhattan SC – East Coast Surf SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	6th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 2
Win 3.00 PPG	1st▲ up 3	1st▲ up 3	5th▼ down 1
Draw 1.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	6th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 2
Loss 0.00 PPG	6th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

17% finish 1st

65% top 4

35% below the top 4

3.5 average finish

1st 17%
2nd 17%
3rd 15%
4th 17%
5th 18%
6th 17%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	AC Connecticut	0.00 (+0.00)	1st (1.46)	Already ahead
2	East Coast Surf SC	0.00 (+0.00)	2nd (1.45)	Already ahead
3	East Meadow Soccer Club	0.00 (+0.00)	3rd (1.45)	Already ahead

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 4th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Dec 12 TBD	East Coast Surf SC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sun Dec 13 TBD	Select	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sun Dec 20 TBD	AC Connecticut 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.35	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	East Coast Surf SC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Connecticut FC United	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.44	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	FSA FC	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.47	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Oakwood Soccer Club 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.48	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 TBD	AC Connecticut 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.49	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	SUSA FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.50	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	East Meadow Soccer Club 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.51	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 07:30 PM	Oakwood Soccer Club 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Oakwood Soccer Park	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.49	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	SUSA FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.47	Upside
Sun May 2 09:00 AM	East Meadow Soccer Club 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Point Lookout - Lido Blvd	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.45	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

AC Connecticut

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Oakwood Soccer Club · Sun Dec 13 vs East Meadow Soccer Club · Sun Dec 20 vs Manhattan SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FSA FC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Stars (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	vs	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Scorpions SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	Connecticut FC United (—)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Coast Surf SC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Manhattan SC · Sun Dec 13 vs SUSA FC ACADEMY · Sun Dec 20 at Oakwood Soccer Club See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 20	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FSA FC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Connecticut FC United (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Meadow Soccer Club

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at SUSA FC · Sun Dec 13 at AC Connecticut · Sun Dec 20 vs SUSA FC ACADEMY See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Scorpions SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Stars (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manhattan SC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at East Coast Surf SC · Sun Dec 13 vs Select · Sun Dec 20 at AC Connecticut See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Select (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 20	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Connecticut FC United (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FSA FC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oakwood Soccer Club

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at AC Connecticut · Sun Dec 13 vs SUSA FC · Sun Dec 20 vs East Coast Surf SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Stars (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Connecticut FC United (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FSA FC (—)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Scorpions SC (—)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs East Meadow Soccer Club · Sun Dec 13 at Oakwood Soccer Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Oakwood Soccer Club See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Stars (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Scorpions SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.