La Roca FC

ECNL Boys · Mountain BU17 · 6 teams · La Roca FC (all teams)

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3rd

1-1-3 record · 5 played

0.80 points per game

-7 goal diff · 6–13

LLLDWlast 5

26% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.9

-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:30 AM

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La Roca FC
3rd · 0.80 PPG

Avalanche
1st · 3.00 PPG

La Roca Park, Field 1 ↗

8% 10% 82%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.9 against · 0.34 expected points)

Season so far	La Roca FC	Avalanche
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-3	5-0-0
Points per game	0.80	3.00
Goals for / game	1.2	4.8
Goals against / game	2.6	1.2
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W D L L L	W W W W W
Biggest win	2–1 at Arizona Arsenal	11–1 vs Arizona Arsenal
Worst loss	0–4 vs Arizona Arsenal	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.84	+2.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.06	-0.60

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 1–3 at Avalanche (L)

Common opponents: CCV STARS — we 2–4, 1–1; they 6–2, 2–1. Arizona Arsenal — we 0–4, 2–1; they 11–1, 2–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Avalanche score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.2.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Arizona Arsenal.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 8%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Avalanche have won 5 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:30 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Avalanche game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (La Roca FC – Avalanche) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.67 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.17 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 0.83 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 0.67 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

26% top 4

74% below the top 4

4.9 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 5%
4th 21%
5th 52%
6th 22%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.08 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Avalanche	3.00 (+2.20)	1st (2.68)	32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	CCV STARS	1.67 (+0.87)	2nd (1.64)	17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

25 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link La Roca FC to Avalanche through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

2 even

21 favour them

-5.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.29 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 09:30 AM	Avalanche 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18	Home La Roca Park	●●●●● Very tough	8%	1–3	0.34	0.72	Upside
Sat Dec 5 02:15 PM	NM Rapids SC	Home La Roca Park	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.06	0.77	Upside
Sun Dec 6 10:00 AM	El Paso Locomotive B09/10	Home La Roca Park	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.06	0.81	Upside
Sat Jan 16 10:00 AM	Colorado EDGE	Home Spence Eccles Ogden Community Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.06	0.84	Upside
Sat Jan 30 10:00 AM	Colorado Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Spence Eccles Ogden Community Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.06	0.86	Upside
Sun Jan 31 TBD	Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.06	0.88	Upside
Sun Feb 21 11:15 AM	Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip Dick's Sporting Goods Park	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.80	0.87	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Avalanche

+18

3.00

WWWWW

-0.60

-0.12

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 4	at	CCV STARS (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arizona Arsenal (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	CCV STARS (2nd)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arizona Arsenal (4th)	11–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 · Sun Dec 6 vs NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (—)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	NM Rapids SC (—)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CCV STARS

1.67

WLDLW

-0.03

+0.00

100%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Arizona Arsenal (4th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Avalanche (1st)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Avalanche (1st)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	4–2
W	Fri Sep 11	at	Arizona Arsenal (4th)	3–0

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Real Colorado National · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pride SC (—)	2–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC

-7

0.80

LLLDW

-0.06

+0.29

26%

4.9

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Arizona Arsenal (4th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	CCV STARS (2nd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arizona Arsenal (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	CCV STARS (2nd)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Avalanche (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 6 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Avalanche (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NM Rapids SC (—)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (—)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arizona Arsenal

-13

0.50

LWLLL

+0.45

+0.00

5.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	CCV STARS (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Avalanche (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Avalanche (1st)	1–11
L	Fri Sep 11	vs	CCV STARS (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Real Colorado National · Sun Mar 14 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado EDGE See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pride SC (—)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush

0.00

—

+0.01

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 · Sat Jan 30 at La Roca FC · Sun Jan 31 at Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Avalanche (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NM Rapids SC (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	CCV STARS (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arizona Arsenal (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pride SC (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	2–2	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Central

0.00

—

+0.01

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Jan 30 at Avalanche · Sun Jan 31 at La Roca FC · Sat Feb 20 vs Avalanche See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Avalanche (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Avalanche (1st)	1–3	17%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Pride SC (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	CCV STARS (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Arizona Arsenal (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	CCV STARS (2nd)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Arizona Arsenal (4th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat May 8	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.