Avalanche
ECNL Boys · Mountain BU17 · 6 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:30 AM
La Roca Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.3 against · 2.56 expected points)
| Season so far | Avalanche | La Roca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / game | 4.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W D L L L |
| Biggest win | 11–1 vs Arizona Arsenal | 2–1 at Arizona Arsenal |
| Worst loss | — | 0–4 vs Arizona Arsenal |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.01 | -0.84 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.60 | -0.06 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 3–1 vs La Roca FC (W)
Common opponents: Arizona Arsenal — we 11–1, 2–1; they 0–4, 2–1. CCV STARS — we 6–2, 2–1; they 2–4, 1–1.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:30 AM at La Roca Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:30 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Avalanche – La Roca FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 97%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
25 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Avalanche to La Roca FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.12 · 6th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 09:30 AM |
La Roca FC 3rd · 1-1-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
La Roca Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.56 | 2.93 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 01:30 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B09/10 |
Home Westminster College · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 2.86 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 6 11:15 AM |
NM Rapids SC |
Home Westminster College · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 2.81 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 17 01:30 PM |
Colorado EDGE |
Home Westminster College · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 2.77 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 01:30 PM |
Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Westminster College · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 2.74 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 31 01:30 PM |
Colorado Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Westminster College · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 09:00 AM |
Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.22 | 2.68 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Avalanche | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.60 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 · Sun Dec 6 vs NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | CCV STARS | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | WLDLW | -0.03 | +0.00 | 100% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Real Colorado National · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | La Roca FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | 0.80 | LLLDW | -0.06 | +0.29 | 25% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 6 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Arizona Arsenal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 3 | 0.50 | LWLLL | +0.45 | +0.00 | 8% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Real Colorado National · Sun Mar 14 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado EDGE See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Colorado Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 · Sat Jan 30 at La Roca FC · Sun Jan 31 at Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado Storm Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 at Avalanche · Sun Jan 31 at La Roca FC · Sat Feb 20 vs Avalanche See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.