Real Colorado National
ECNL Boys · Mountain BU17 · 5 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sat Feb 6, 11:15 AM
Highland Heritage Regional Park, HHRP Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Real Colorado National | Pride SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Pride SC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Pride SC sit 4th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Pride SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pride SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado National – Pride SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 1 – Sun Feb 7); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 4 | 1st▲ up 4 | 1st▲ up 4 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 17%
- 2nd 19%
- 3rd 20%
- 4th 23%
- 5th 21%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado EDGE | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.50) | Already ahead |
| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B09/10 | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.49) | Already ahead |
| 3 | NM Rapids SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.49) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Pride SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.44) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Feb 6 11:15 AM |
Pride SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 01:00 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B09/10 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Socorro Athletic Complex (SAC) |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM |
NM Rapids SC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
La Roca FC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 11:15 AM |
Avalanche |
Home Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 02:00 PM |
Colorado EDGE 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Long Lake Regional Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:15 AM |
El Paso Locomotive B09/10 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
NM Rapids SC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Colorado Rush |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Pride SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado EDGE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 vs La Roca FC · Sun Feb 21 vs Avalanche · Sat Feb 27 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B09/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 13 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Real Colorado National · Sun Feb 21 vs Pride SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sun Feb 14 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Pride SC · Sun Feb 21 vs Real Colorado National See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Pride SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 6 at Real Colorado National · Sat Feb 20 at NM Rapids SC · Sun Feb 21 at El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Real Colorado National | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 6 vs Pride SC · Sat Feb 20 at El Paso Locomotive B09/10 · Sun Feb 21 at NM Rapids SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.