St Croix
ECNL Boys · Midwest BU14 · 8 teams · St. Croix (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two, Field - TBA (11v11) ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.4 against · 1.65 expected points)
| Season so far | St Croix | Rockford Raptors FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-0 | 4-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 1.86 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W | W L D W W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Chicago Inter | 7–0 at Indiana Elite FC |
| Worst loss | — | 2–6 at Chicago Inter |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.11 | +0.62 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.00 | -0.22 |
Common opponents: Indiana Elite FC — we 2–0, 5–1; they 7–0. Chicago Inter — we 4–0, 1–1; they 2–6.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Rockford Raptors FC score 2.4/game — well above the league's 1.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 23% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Mercyhealth Sportscore Two.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Eclipse Select Soccer Club sit 1st on 2.57 PPG; we are on 2.50.A point moves us above Eclipse Select Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rockford Raptors FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St Croix – Rockford Raptors FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.20 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.60 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.20 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 45%
- 2nd 39%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.90 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 2.57 (+0.07) | 1st (2.12) | A point next game |
How the results connect
24 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link St Croix to Rockford Raptors FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.09 · 4th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 11:30 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Lewis University |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 2.17 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 02:30 PM |
FC Wisconsin 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -6 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.49 | 2.21 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 11:15 AM |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
1–0 | 2.02 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 11:15 AM |
MN Thunder Academy 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–0 | 2.11 | 2.18 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 10:30 AM |
Chicago Inter 5th · 3-3-2 · GD +1 |
Home Conway Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.12 | 2.17 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 10:30 AM |
Indiana Elite FC 8th · 0-0-8 · GD -26 |
Home Conway Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.88 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 12:30 PM |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
1–0 | 2.02 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM |
FC Wisconsin 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -6 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.49 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
MN Thunder Academy 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–0 | 2.11 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 2.14 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.60 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.91 | 2.10 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.30 | 2.11 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–0 | 1.80 | 2.09 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 09:45 AM |
MN Thunder Academy 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–1 | 1.88 | 2.08 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWL | -0.29 | +0.02 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs St Croix · Sun Mar 14 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | St Croix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -1.00 | +0.09 | 99% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Wisconsin See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Rockford Raptors FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 | 1.86 | WWDLW | -0.22 | +0.07 | 85% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs St Croix · Sun Oct 25 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | MN Thunder Academy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 | 1.75 | DWWL | -1.00 | +0.28 | 23% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Chicago Inter | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 | 1.50 | LDWDW | +0.40 | -0.25 | 59% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Indiana Elite FC · Sat Feb 20 at MN Thunder Academy · Sat Feb 20 at St Croix See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 | 1.33 | LDWDW | +0.16 | -0.04 | 34% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Nov 14 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Nov 15 at St Croix See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | FC Wisconsin | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.15 | +0.10 | 0% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at St Croix · Sun Nov 15 at MN Thunder Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Indiana Elite FC | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 32 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.40 | +0.31 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Feb 21 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Feb 21 at St Croix See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.