St Croix
ECNL Boys · Midwest BU13 · 8 teams · St. Croix (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two, Field - TBA (11v11) ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.1 against · 2.25 expected points)
| Season so far | St Croix | Rockford Raptors FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-0 | 4-0-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | L L L W W |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at Chicago Inter | 5–0 at Indiana Elite FC |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 at Chicago Magic Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.63 | -0.14 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -2.75 | +0.45 |
Common opponents: Indiana Elite FC — we 4–0, 5–0; they 5–0. Chicago Inter — we 2–0, 5–0; they 4–2.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 70% / draw 16% / loss 14%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Rockford Raptors FC have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Mercyhealth Sportscore Two.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Chicago Magic Soccer Club sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.A win moves us above Chicago Magic Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rockford Raptors FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St Croix – Rockford Raptors FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.60 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.40 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 4%
- 2nd 82%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th 2%
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 3.00 (+0.00) | 1st (2.68) | Win next game |
How the results connect
24 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link St Croix to Rockford Raptors FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.53 · 2nd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 4th · 4-0-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.25 | 2.85 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Lewis University |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 2.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.30 | 2.59 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 09:45 AM |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +28 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 2.38 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 09:30 AM |
MN Thunder Academy 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +10 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 2.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 09:00 AM |
Chicago Inter 7th · 0-1-7 · GD -27 |
Home Conway Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 09:00 AM |
Indiana Elite FC 8th · 0-0-8 · GD -41 |
Home Conway Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
5–0 | 2.97 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 11:00 AM |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +28 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 2.34 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 09:30 AM |
FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.30 | 2.33 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
MN Thunder Academy 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 2.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 4th · 4-0-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.25 | 2.32 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +13 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.85 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Rockford Raptors FC 4th · 4-0-3 · GD -2 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.46 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.08 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +28 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–1 | 0.72 | 2.17 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 08:00 AM |
MN Thunder Academy 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 2.16 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | +28 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.62 | -0.16 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Nov 14 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Nov 15 at St Croix See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St Croix | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | +16 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -2.75 | +0.53 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Wisconsin See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | MN Thunder Academy | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -2.75 | +0.70 | 57% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Rockford Raptors FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 | 1.71 | WWLLL | +0.45 | +0.11 | 25% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs St Croix · Sun Oct 25 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Wisconsin | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | DLWWW | -0.62 | +0.37 | 27% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at St Croix · Sun Nov 15 at MN Thunder Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 10 | 1.43 | LDLLW | +0.18 | -0.10 | 92% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs St Croix · Sun Mar 14 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Chicago Inter | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 35 | -27 | 1 | 0.13 | LLDLL | +1.13 | +0.04 | 0% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Indiana Elite FC · Sat Feb 20 at St Croix · Sat Feb 20 at MN Thunder Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Indiana Elite FC | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 44 | -41 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.13 | +0.33 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Feb 21 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Feb 21 at St Croix See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.