MN Thunder Academy
ECNL Boys · Midwest BU13 · 8 teams · Minnesota Thunder Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM
Lewis University, field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.8 against · 0.88 expected points)
| Season so far | MN Thunder Academy | Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-0 | 3-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 1.43 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W W | W L L D L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Indiana Elite FC | 8–0 at Indiana Elite FC |
| Worst loss | — | 0–2 at Chicago Magic Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.66 | +1.28 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -2.75 | +0.18 |
Common opponents: Chicago Inter — we 5–2, 2–2; they 8–1. Indiana Elite FC — we 4–0, 5–2; they 8–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Eclipse Select Soccer Club score 3.1/game — well above the league's 2.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 02:30 PM at Lewis University.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Eclipse Select Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MN Thunder Academy – Eclipse Select Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.60 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.20 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 19%
- 4th 34%
- 5th 24%
- 6th 20%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.90 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 3.00 (+0.50) | 1st (2.68) | 53 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection |
| 2 | St Croix | 3.00 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.16) | 53 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
How the results connect
24 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link MN Thunder Academy to Eclipse Select Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.70 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:30 PM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Lewis University |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 2.18 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 4th · 4-0-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.68 | 2.09 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 08:00 AM |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +28 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.37 | 1.85 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 08:00 AM |
FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.78 | 1.84 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 09:30 AM |
St Croix 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 12:30 PM |
Chicago Inter 7th · 0-1-7 · GD -27 |
Home Winter Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.74 | 1.81 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 08:00 AM |
Indiana Elite FC 8th · 0-0-8 · GD -41 |
Home Winter Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.92 | 1.91 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 08:00 AM |
FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.78 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 08:00 AM |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +28 |
Home Winter Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.37 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
St Croix 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +13 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 1.64 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 4th · 4-0-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.68 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 08:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 4th · 4-0-3 · GD -2 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 08:00 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +13 |
Home Winter Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.17 | 1.64 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +28 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.24 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.48 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 08:00 AM |
St Croix 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +16 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 1.53 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | +28 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.62 | -0.16 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Nov 14 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Nov 15 at St Croix See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St Croix | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | +16 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -2.75 | +0.53 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Wisconsin See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | MN Thunder Academy | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -2.75 | +0.70 | 56% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Rockford Raptors FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 | 1.71 | WWLLL | +0.45 | +0.11 | 27% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs St Croix · Sun Oct 25 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Wisconsin | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | DLWWW | -0.62 | +0.37 | 27% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at St Croix · Sun Nov 15 at MN Thunder Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 10 | 1.43 | LDLLW | +0.18 | -0.10 | 91% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs St Croix · Sun Mar 14 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Chicago Inter | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 35 | -27 | 1 | 0.13 | LLDLL | +1.13 | +0.04 | 0% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Indiana Elite FC · Sat Feb 20 at St Croix · Sat Feb 20 at MN Thunder Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Indiana Elite FC | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 44 | -41 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.13 | +0.33 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Feb 21 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Feb 21 at St Croix See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.