VSA Rush
ECNL Boys · Heartland BU17 · 6 teams · VSA Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.4 for, 1.0 against · 2.76 expected points)
| Season so far | VSA Rush | Arkansas Comets FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-0-0 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.4 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L L D L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Arkansas Comets FC | 5–3 at OK Energy FC |
| Worst loss | — | 1–7 at Gretna Elite Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.79 | -1.15 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.21 | +0.07 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 5–0 vs Arkansas Comets FC (W)
Common opponents: Gretna Elite Academy — we 5–2, 1–0; they 1–7. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 2–0, 5–1; they 2–3. Sporting Iowa Central — we 1–0; they 2–3. OK Energy FC — we 3–0; they 5–3, 2–2.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Arkansas Comets FC concede 3.8/game; worst result 1–7 at Gretna Elite Academy.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VSA Rush – Arkansas Comets FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.75 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.63 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 100%
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
37 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link VSA Rush to Arkansas Comets FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.37 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC 4th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.76 | 2.97 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC 6th · 0-2-4 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
2–0 | 2.59 | 2.93 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM |
Sporting Iowa Central 5th · 1-1-5 · GD -7 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
2–0 | 2.66 | 2.90 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 03:00 PM |
Kansas City Athletics |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.51 | 2.87 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 13 09:00 AM |
Union KC Soccer Club |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.51 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 16 07:00 PM |
FC Wichita |
Home MidAmerican Energy Company RecPlex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.51 | 2.81 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 17 11:00 AM |
Kansas Rush |
Home MidAmerican Energy Company RecPlex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.51 | 2.79 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | VSA Rush | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | +19 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.21 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 13 | 1.86 | WWWLD | +0.04 | -0.40 | 100% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLWD | +0.17 | -0.24 | 100% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Arkansas Comets FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDLL | +0.07 | +0.23 | 39% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs VSA Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Iowa Central | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLWD | +0.14 | -0.02 | 41% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | OK Energy FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 2 | 0.33 | LLDLD | -0.04 | +0.23 | 19% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.