Arkansas Comets FC

ECNL Boys · Heartland BU17 · 6 teams · Arkansas Comets FC (all teams)

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4th

1-1-4 record · 6 played

0.67 points per game

-11 goal diff · 12–23

LLDLLlast 5

41% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8

+0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Arkansas Comets FC
4th · 0.67 PPG

Gretna Elite Academy
2nd · 1.86 PPG

NOKC Soccer Fields, Field 2 ↗

14% 13% 73%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.8 for, 3.8 against · 0.56 expected points)

Season so far	Arkansas Comets FC	Gretna Elite Academy
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-4	4-1-2
Points per game	0.67	1.86
Goals for / game	2.0	2.6
Goals against / game	3.8	1.4
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	L L D L L	D L W W W
Biggest win	5–3 at OK Energy FC	7–1 vs Arkansas Comets FC
Worst loss	1–7 at Gretna Elite Academy	2–5 at VSA Rush
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.15	+0.76
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.07	+0.04

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 1–7 at Gretna Elite Academy (L)

Common opponents: OK Energy FC — we 5–3, 2–2; they 2–0. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 2–3; they 0–0. Sporting Iowa Central — we 2–3; they 5–2, 2–1. VSA Rush — we 0–5; they 2–5, 0–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Gretna Elite Academy score 2.6/game — well above the league's 1.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at VSA Rush.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Gretna Elite Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Comets FC – Gretna Elite Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.57 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2
Win 1.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Draw 0.71 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Loss 0.57 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

41% top 4

59% below the top 4

4.8 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 40%
5th 37%
6th 23%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	VSA Rush	3.00 (+2.33)	1st (2.79)	38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Gretna Elite Academy	1.86 (+1.19)	2nd (1.93)	23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3	Sporting Nebraska FC	1.86 (+1.19)	3rd (1.70)	23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

37 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Arkansas Comets FC to Gretna Elite Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

5 even

28 favour them

-1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.23 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	Gretna Elite Academy 2nd · 4-1-2 · GD +8	Home NOKC Soccer Fields	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–3	0.56	0.65	Upside
Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM	Sporting Nebraska FC 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD -1	Home NOKC Soccer Fields	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.07	0.70	Upside
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	VSA Rush 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +19	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	4%	1–4	0.18	0.64	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Sporting Iowa Central 5th · 1-1-5 · GD -7	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	2–2	1.50	0.73	Swing game
Sat Dec 19 11:00 AM	FC Wichita	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–2	0.99	0.75	Upside
Sun Dec 20 11:00 AM	Kansas Rush	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–2	0.99	0.77	Upside
Sat Feb 6 11:00 AM	Kansas City Athletics	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–2	0.99	0.79	Upside
Sun Feb 7 11:00 AM	Union KC Soccer Club	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–2	0.99	0.81	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

VSA Rush

+19

3.00

WWWWW

-0.21

-0.37

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	5–1
W	Fri Sep 25	at	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	5–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	OK Energy FC (6th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	FC Wichita (—)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	2–0	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy

1.86

WWWLD

+0.04

-0.40

100%

2.2

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	5–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	VSA Rush (1st)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC (6th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Nebraska FC

-1

1.86

WWLWD

+0.17

-0.24

100%

2.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	VSA Rush (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC (6th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

-11

0.67

LLDLL

+0.07

+0.23

41%

4.8

L	Sun Oct 11	at	VSA Rush (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	OK Energy FC (6th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC (6th)	5–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs VSA Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Wichita (—)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	2–2	27%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	2–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa Central

-7

0.57

LLLWD

+0.14

-0.02

43%

4.9

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC (6th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	1–2
L	Fri Sep 25	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	2–5
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	OK Energy FC (6th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	VSA Rush (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC

-8

0.33

LLDLD

-0.04

+0.23

17%

5.3

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	VSA Rush (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (4th)	3–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	VSA Rush (1st)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.