OK Energy FC
ECNL Boys · Heartland BU16 · 6 teams · Oklahoma Energy FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
North Oklahoma City FC, NOKC Red 5 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.3 against · 1.63 expected points)
| Season so far | OK Energy FC | Sporting Nebraska FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-3 | 1-3-3 |
| Points per game | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D W L | D D D L W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs Arkansas Comets FC | 4–0 vs Arkansas Comets FC |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at Sporting Iowa Central | 0–3 at VSA Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.04 | -0.15 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.27 | +0.11 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 3–1 at Sporting Nebraska FC (W)
Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC — we 4–1, 1–1; they 4–0. Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–2; they 1–1. VSA Rush — we 1–2; they 0–3, 2–2. Sporting Iowa Central — we 0–2; they 0–1, 1–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Sporting Iowa Central.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 24% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Nebraska FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (OK Energy FC – Sporting Nebraska FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.14 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.43 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.14 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 45%
- 5th 27%
- 6th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.21 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gretna Elite Academy | 2.71 (+1.54) | 1st (2.52) | 31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Sporting Iowa Central | 1.86 (+0.69) | 2nd (1.82) | 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 3 | VSA Rush | 1.43 (+0.26) | 3rd (1.52) | 14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
How the results connect
37 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link OK Energy FC to Sporting Nebraska FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.20 · 1st hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Sporting Nebraska FC 5th · 1-3-3 · GD -2 |
Home North Oklahoma City FC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Gretna Elite Academy 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home North Oklahoma City FC |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Sporting Iowa Central 2nd · 4-1-2 · GD +4 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
VSA Rush 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD +1 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 01:00 PM |
Kansas Rush |
Home North Oklahoma City FC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.25 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 20 11:00 AM |
FC Wichita |
Home North Oklahoma City FC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 01:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club |
Home North Oklahoma City FC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 7 09:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.31 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Gretna Elite Academy | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWD | -0.11 | -0.36 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Sporting Iowa Central | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 13 | 1.86 | WLDWW | +0.04 | -0.22 | 100% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | VSA Rush | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 | 1.43 | LDLWW | +0.08 | -0.18 | 97% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | OK Energy FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 | 1.17 | LWDLL | -0.27 | +0.20 | 73% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 | 0.86 | WLDDD | +0.11 | -0.09 | 30% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Arkansas Comets FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 1 | 0.17 | LLDLL | +0.28 | +0.20 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs VSA Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.