Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance

Elite Academy League 2 · Oregon U13 · 11 teams · Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (all teams)

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4th

5-0-3 record · 8 played

1.88 points per game

+10 goal diff · 29–19

WWLWLlast 5

55% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4

-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance
4th · 1.88 PPG

Oregon Surf SC
11th · 0.13 PPG

West Albany High School, Turf ↗ · turf

96%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.8 for, 1.0 against · 2.90 expected points)

Season so far	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance	Oregon Surf SC
Position	4th	11th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-3	0-1-7
Points per game	1.88	0.13
Goals for / game	3.6	0.5
Goals against / game	2.4	4.8
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	5
Form (recent first)	L W L W W	L L D L L
Biggest win	6–1 at Westside Metros South	—
Worst loss	1–5 at Oregon Surf Blue	0–10 vs Oregon Surf Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.89	-2.88
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.01	+0.47

Common opponents: Soccer Chance Academy White — we 2–3; they 0–6. Soccer Chance Academy Black — we 3–1; they 0–3. Bend FC — we 4–3; they 1–3. ALBION SC Portland — we 4–0; they 0–1. Oregon Surf Blue — we 1–5; they 0–10. Westside Metros South — we 6–1; they 2–2. Westside Metros — we 3–4; they 0–4.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Oregon Surf SC average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 5 of 8.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Oregon Surf SC concede 4.8/game; worst result 0–10 vs Oregon Surf Blue.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 5–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oregon Surf SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance – Oregon Surf SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1
Win 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1
Draw 1.78 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2
Loss 1.67 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

55% top 4

45% below the top 4

4.4 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 3%
4th 52%
5th 44%
6th 1%
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.10 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Oregon Surf Blue	3.00 (+1.12)	1st (2.81)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Soccer Chance Academy	3.00 (+1.12)	2nd (2.53)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Westside Metros	2.63 (+0.75)	3rd (2.44)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

42 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance to Oregon Surf SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

41 favour us

1 even

0 favour them

+4.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 9th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	Oregon Surf SC 11th · 0-1-7 · GD -34	Home West Albany High School · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	5–1	2.90	1.99	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 12:00 AM	Soccer Chance Academy 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +26	Home TBD	●●●●● Very tough	17%	2–3	0.65	1.85	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Oregon Surf Blue

+31

3.00

WWWWW

-0.48

+0.11

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Bend FC (6th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros (3rd)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	10–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs ALBION SC Portland · Sat Oct 17 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Westside Metros South See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–2	54%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	4–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Soccer Chance Academy

+26

3.00

WWWWW

-1.42

+0.99

99%

2.1

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	9–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Westside Metros · Sat Oct 31 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	2–2	28%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Westside Metros (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	3–2	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	3–1	86%
·	Tue May 25	at	Bend FC (6th)	4–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Westside Metros

+16

2.63

WWWWW

-0.40

+1.22

100%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	4–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Bend FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Bend FC (6th)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance

+10

1.88

WWLWL

-0.01

-0.08

55%

4.4

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Westside Metros (3rd)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	6–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Bend FC (6th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Soccer Chance Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	5–1	96%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–3	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Soccer Chance Academy White

1.86

WLWDL

-0.19

+0.47

41%

4.7

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Westside Metros (3rd)	1–3
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bend FC · Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Portland · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Surf Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Bend FC (6th)	3–2	53%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–4	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bend FC

-2

1.50

WLLW

-0.06

+0.19

6.2

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	3–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy White · Sun Oct 25 vs Soccer Chance Academy Black · Sun Nov 1 at Westside Metros See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–3	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Westside Metros (3rd)	1–3	13%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Tue May 25	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	2–1	60%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Soccer Chance Academy Black

-1

1.25

LWDLW

-0.22

+1.22

6.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–4
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Westside Metros (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Bend FC · Sun Nov 1 at Soccer Chance Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Bend FC (6th)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Portland

-16

0.88

LLLLW

-0.24

+1.98

8.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Westside Metros (3rd)	0–6
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Bend FC (6th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Oregon Surf Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Saints Soccer Academy

-23

0.43

LWLLL

+1.05

-1.56

8.8

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Westside Metros (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	2–6
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 12	at	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Westside Metros South · Tue May 25 at Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	1–1	43%
·	Tue May 25	at	Bend FC (6th)	1–3	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Westside Metros South

-16

0.29

DLLLD

+0.12

+0.34

9.8

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Westside Metros (3rd)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Saints Soccer Academy · Tue May 25 vs Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	1–1	35%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Bend FC (6th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Surf SC

-34

0.13

LLDLL

+0.47

-0.52

10.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	ALBION SC Portland (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Soccer Chance Academy Black (7th)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Bend FC (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Westside Metros (3rd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at Saints Soccer Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (4th)	1–5	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.