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CF10 Houston FC

Elite Academy League · Texas U15 · 9 teams · CF10 Houston FC (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+11 goal diff · 15–4
LWWWlast 4
78% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
-1.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Mon Oct 26, 12:00 AM

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CF10 Houston FC
3rd · 2.25 PPG
vs
ALBION SC Dallas (2)
4th · 2.17 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.4 against · 2.08 expected points)

Season so farCF10 Houston FCALBION SC Dallas (2)
Position3rd4th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-14-1-1
Points per game2.252.17
Goals for / game3.82.2
Goals against / game1.01.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W W LW L W D W
Biggest win10–0 at BVBIA DFW5–2 vs BVBIA DFW
Worst loss0–2 at ALBION SC Dallas1–4 vs PSG Academy DFW
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.33+0.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.41-0.47

Common opponents: ALBION SC Dallas — we 0–2; they 2–1, 2–1. ALBION SC Dallas (1) — we 2–1; they 2–1. BVBIA DFW — we 10–0; they 5–2. PSG Academy DFW — we 3–1; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at ALBION SC Dallas.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 64% / draw 17% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Dallas sit 2nd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Dallas on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Monday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Dallas (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CF10 Houston FC – ALBION SC Dallas (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG		 1st▲ up 2 1st▲ up 2 1st▲ up 2
Win
2.40 PPG		 1st▲ up 2 1st▲ up 2 1st▲ up 2
Draw
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
1.80 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

13% finish 1st
78% top 4
22% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st 13%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Atletico Dallas 2.33 (+0.08) 1st (2.19) A point next game
2 ALBION SC Dallas 2.25 (+0.00) 2nd (1.97) A point next game

How the results connect

24 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link CF10 Houston FC to ALBION SC Dallas (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
3 even
9 favour them
+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–2 0–2 1–2 1–2 3–1 4–1 10–0 2–5 1–3 1–1 5–2 0–3 1–3 0–2 3–0 6–0 CF10 Houston FC 3rd ALBION SC Dallas (1) 8th ALBION SC Dallas 2nd PSG Academy DFW 6th BVBIA DFW 9th Steel United TX 5th ALBION SC Dallas (2) 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.42 · 6th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Oct 26
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Dallas (2)
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +3		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.08 2.22 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
01:30 PM		 ALBION SC Dallas (2)
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +3		 Home
San Antonio Sporti		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.08 2.19 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 ALBION SC Dallas (2)
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +3		 Away
Sporti in San Antonio		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.81 2.14 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM		 Steel United TX
5th · 5-2-1 · GD +9		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.46 2.05 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:45 AM		 Atletico Dallas
1st · 2-1-0 · GD +22		 Away
Sporti in San Antonio		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 2–3 0.83 1.92 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 BTX SC
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +13		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.16 1.84 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 BTX SC
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +13		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 2–2 1.46 1.81 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Dallas (1)
8th · 0-0-9 · GD -26		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 4–1 2.78 1.89 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Dallas
2nd · 6-0-2 · GD +20		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.43 1.85 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Steel United TX
5th · 5-2-1 · GD +9		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–1 1.72 1.84 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Atletico Dallas
1st · 2-1-0 · GD +22		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 2–3 1.15 1.80 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM		 BVBIA DFW
9th · 0-0-7 · GD -55		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 8–0 2.98 1.87 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 PSG Academy DFW
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +3		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.09 1.88 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Atletico Dallas 3210 253+22 72.33 WWD -1.98 +0.25 96% 1.8
2 ALBION SC Dallas 8602 299+20 182.25 WWWWL -0.68 +0.56 89% 2.8
3 CF10 Houston FC 4301 154+11 92.25 LWWW -1.41 +0.42 78% 3.3
4 ALBION SC Dallas (2) 6411 1310+3 132.17 WDWLW -0.47 +0.51 23% 5.5
5 Steel United TX 8521 178+9 172.13 DWWDW -0.51 +0.66 55% 4.2
6 PSG Academy DFW 7403 1512+3 121.71 WLWWL -0.21 +0.55 8% 6.2
7 BTX SC 4202 174+13 61.50 WLLW -1.42 +0.42 51% 4.3
8 ALBION SC Dallas (1) 9009 1036-26 00.00 LLLLL +1.20 -0.60 0% 8.0
9 BVBIA DFW 7007 358-55 00.00 LLLLL +1.22 +0.51 0% 9.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.