UFA Norcross
Elite Academy League · Southeast U14 · 8 teams · UFA Norcross (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.7 against · 0.33 expected points)
| Season so far | UFA Norcross | UFA Gainesville |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-4 | 7-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.44 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L L | W W D W W |
| Biggest win | 5–2 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club | 6–0 vs UFA Norcross |
| Worst loss | 0–6 vs All-IN FC | 2–4 at All-IN FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.05 | +1.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.01 | +0.06 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 0–6 at UFA Gainesville (L)
Common opponents: Covered Bridge Soccer Club — we 5–2, 1–3; they 3–1. ALBION SC Atlanta — we 2–2; they 6–0. ALBION SC Atlanta Metro — we 2–5; they 3–1. All-IN FC — we 0–6; they 2–4, 0–0. BVBIA Georgia — we 4–1; they 3–2.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
UFA Gainesville concede only 0.9/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 vs All-IN FC, 0–6 at UFA Gainesville.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 8%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
BVBIA Georgia sit 5th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above BVBIA Georgia on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the UFA Gainesville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (UFA Norcross – UFA Gainesville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.88 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.25 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.88 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 19%
- 6th 38%
- 7th 28%
- 8th 4%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | All-IN FC | 2.50 (+1.50) | 1st (2.60) | 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | UFA Gainesville | 2.44 (+1.44) | 2nd (2.47) | 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | ALBION SC Nashville | 1.43 (+0.43) | 3rd (1.38) | 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 4 | ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 1.29 (+0.29) | 4th (1.35) | 12 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 5 | BVBIA Georgia | 1.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.17) | A point next game |
How the results connect
51 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link UFA Norcross to UFA Gainesville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.32 · 3rd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
UFA Gainesville 2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +19 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
BVBIA Georgia 5th · 2-1-4 · GD +0 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
2–3 | 1.04 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 02:15 PM |
All-IN FC 1st · 6-2-0 · GD +31 |
Away Gary Pirkle Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.07 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
ALBION SC Nashville 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -5 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Nashville 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -5 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.00 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 4th · 2-3-2 · GD +2 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.00 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 08:30 PM |
ALBION SC Atlanta 7th · 2-2-5 · GD -16 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–2 | 1.76 | 0.97 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | All-IN FC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 4 | +31 | 20 | 2.50 | WDDWW | -0.21 | -0.72 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 8 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Norcross See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | UFA Gainesville | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 22 | 2.44 | WWDWW | +0.06 | -0.79 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at UFA Norcross · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Atlanta Metro See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Nashville | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | 1.43 | LLWDL | +0.29 | -0.16 | 72% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sun Nov 1 at BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 vs Covered Bridge Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | 1.29 | WLWDD | -0.04 | -0.03 | 75% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 8 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Gainesville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | BVBIA Georgia | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 22 | +0 | 7 | 1.00 | WWLLL | -0.16 | +0.12 | 40% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | UFA Norcross | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 7 | 1.00 | LLLWL | -0.01 | +0.32 | 11% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 7 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 14 at All-IN FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | ALBION SC Atlanta | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 8 | 0.89 | LLDWL | +0.15 | +0.33 | 2% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs All-IN FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Covered Bridge Soccer Club | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 4 | 0.50 | LLWLD | +0.11 | +0.44 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 8 vs All-IN FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.