UFA Gainesville

Elite Academy League · Southeast U14 · 8 teams · UFA Gainesville (all teams)

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2nd

7-1-1 record · 9 played

2.44 points per game

+19 goal diff · 27–8

WWDWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8

+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM

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UFA Gainesville
2nd · 2.44 PPG

UFA Norcross
6th · 1.00 PPG

Pinckneyville Park, PVP 4 ↗

82% 10%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.56 expected points)

Season so far	UFA Gainesville	UFA Norcross
Position	2nd	6th
Record (W-D-L)	7-1-1	2-1-4
Points per game	2.44	1.00
Goals for / game	3.0	2.0
Goals against / game	0.9	3.6
Clean sheets	5	0
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W W D W W	L W L L L
Biggest win	6–0 vs UFA Norcross	5–2 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club
Worst loss	2–4 at All-IN FC	0–6 vs All-IN FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.59	-1.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.06	-0.01

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 6–0 vs UFA Norcross (W)

Common opponents: All-IN FC — we 2–4, 0–0; they 0–6. Covered Bridge Soccer Club — we 3–1; they 5–2, 1–3. ALBION SC Atlanta Metro — we 3–1; they 2–5. ALBION SC Atlanta — we 6–0; they 2–2. BVBIA Georgia — we 3–2; they 4–1.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
UFA Norcross concede 3.6/game; worst result 0–6 vs All-IN FC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs All-IN FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Pinckneyville Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
All-IN FC sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.44.
A win moves us above All-IN FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the UFA Norcross game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (UFA Gainesville – UFA Norcross) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.50 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.50 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.30 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.20 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

22% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.8 average finish

1st 22%
2nd 78%
3rd <1%
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	All-IN FC	2.50 (+0.06)	1st (2.60)	Win next game

How the results connect

51 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link UFA Gainesville to UFA Norcross through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

43 favour us

2 even

6 favour them

+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.79 · 8th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM	UFA Norcross 6th · 2-1-4 · GD -11	Away Pinckneyville Park	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–1	2.56	2.46	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	ALBION SC Atlanta 7th · 2-2-5 · GD -16	Home Gainesville High School · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	4–0	2.75	2.48	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 4th · 2-3-2 · GD +2	Away Field B - Dresden Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	58%	1–0	1.96	2.44	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 10:30 AM	Covered Bridge Soccer Club 8th · 1-1-6 · GD -20	Home Gainesville High School · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	4–0	2.82	2.47	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM	BVBIA Georgia 5th · 2-1-4 · GD +0	Home Gainesville High School · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–1	2.51	2.47	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

All-IN FC

+31

2.50

WDDWW

-0.21

-0.72

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	6–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	UFA Norcross (6th)	6–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	7–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	4–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 8 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Norcross See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	UFA Norcross (6th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	3–0	84%
·	Tue May 25	at	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	4–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

UFA Gainesville

+19

2.44

WWDWW

+0.06

-0.79

100%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	All-IN FC (1st)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	UFA Norcross (6th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	All-IN FC (1st)	2–4

Next: Sun Nov 1 at UFA Norcross · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Atlanta Metro See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	UFA Norcross (6th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	4–0	89%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	3–1	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Nashville

-5

1.43

LLWDL

+0.29

-0.16

72%

4.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	All-IN FC (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sun Nov 1 at BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 vs Covered Bridge Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	2–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	UFA Norcross (6th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	UFA Norcross (6th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	All-IN FC (1st)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Atlanta Metro

1.29

WLWDD

-0.04

-0.03

75%

3.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	All-IN FC (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	UFA Norcross (6th)	5–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	0–1
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 8 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Gainesville See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	All-IN FC (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	UFA Norcross (6th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Tue May 25	at	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	2–2	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA Georgia

1.00

WWLLL

-0.16

+0.12

40%

4.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	UFA Norcross (6th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	6–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	All-IN FC (1st)	0–7
D	Sat Aug 29	at	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	3–2	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	2–2	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	UFA Norcross (6th)	3–2	55%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	2–2	41%
·	Tue May 25	vs	All-IN FC (1st)	1–4	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

UFA Norcross

-11

1.00

LLLWL

-0.01

+0.32

11%

5.9

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	All-IN FC (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 5	at	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	2–5
D	Sun Aug 30	at	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	5–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 7 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 14 at All-IN FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	All-IN FC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	2–2	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Atlanta

-16

0.89

LLDWL

+0.15

+0.33

6.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	All-IN FC (1st)	0–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	4–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	2–6
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	UFA Norcross (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs All-IN FC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Covered Bridge Soccer Club (8th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	All-IN FC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Tue May 25	at	UFA Norcross (6th)	2–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Covered Bridge Soccer Club

-20

0.50

LLWLD

+0.11

+0.44

7.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	All-IN FC (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 3	at	UFA Norcross (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	2–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	UFA Norcross (6th)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 8 vs All-IN FC See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	BVBIA Georgia (5th)	2–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	ALBION SC Nashville (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	All-IN FC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta (7th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	UFA Gainesville (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (4th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.