TableChase Clubs

Mt. Rainier

Elite Academy League · PACNW U12 · 16 teams · Mt. Rainier (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
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5th
4-0-2 record · 6 played
2.00 points per game
+7 goal diff · 16–9
LWLWWlast 5
21% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.8
-0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Mt. Rainier
5th · 2.00 PPG
vs
United Sports FC
7th · 1.75 PPG

Lakeridge Middle School, Turf field ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.1 against · 1.51 expected points)

Season so farMt. RainierUnited Sports FC
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-22-1-1
Points per game2.001.75
Goals for / game2.73.5
Goals against / game1.51.5
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W L W LL W D W
Biggest win9–0 at BVBIA Washington9–1 vs Atletico Rojo
Worst loss0–5 at Atletico Oro1–4 at Highline Premier FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.71+0.86
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.34-1.02

Common opponents: Atletico Azul — we 3–1; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    United Sports FC score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Atletico Oro.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 44% / draw 20% / loss 36%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the United Sports FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mt. Rainier – United Sports FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.86 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1
Win
2.14 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.86 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.71 PPG
7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
21% top 4
79% below the top 4
5.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 23%
  7. 7th 26%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.83) 18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Atletico Oro 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.59) 18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sound FC 2.50 (+0.50) 3rd (2.15) 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
4 Sozo 2.17 (+0.17) 5th (2.04) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

11 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Mt. Rainier to United Sports FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
3 even
6 favour them
-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 0–3 0–5 3–1 4–1 1–0 2–0 1–3 6–1 6–1 1–9 0–2 2–0 1–4 1–1 3–0 4–0 1–3 9–0 5–1 Mt. Rainier 5th Atletico Azul 15th Atletico Oro 2nd Washington Rush 9th Harbor SC 10th Seattle Celtic Green 12th BVBIA Washington 11th Highline Premier FC 6th Atletico Rojo 16th Sozo 4th United Sports FC 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.49 · 12th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM
United Sports FC
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Lakeridge Middle School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.51 1.93 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
10:30 AM
Atletico Rojo
16th · 0-0-6 · GD -37
Home
Lakeridge Middle School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.93 2.06 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
09:30 AM
Seattle Celtic
14th · 1-0-4 · GD -3
Away
Magnuson Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.71 2.02 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
03:30 PM
Sound FC
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +11
Away
Woodinville Sports Fields
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.91 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 5500 342+32 153.00 WWWWW -1.23 -0.23 100% 1.2
2 Atletico Oro 5500 182+16 153.00 WWWWW +0.29 +0.36 99% 2.1
3 Sound FC 4310 132+11 102.50 WWDW -1.36 +0.33 59% 4.3
4 Sozo 6411 138+5 132.17 LWDWW +0.37 -0.42 34% 5.2
5 Mt. Rainier 6402 169+7 122.00 LWLWW -0.34 -0.49 21% 5.8
6 Highline Premier FC 6402 139+4 122.00 WWLWW +0.69 -1.66 50% 4.7
7 United Sports FC 4211 146+8 71.75 WDWL -1.02 -0.56 36% 5.3
8 Sparta Tacoma 6303 1818+0 91.50 WLWWL +0.22 -0.80 1% 7.7
9 Washington Rush 5203 59-4 61.20 WLLLW +1.05 +0.05 0% 9.8
10 Harbor SC 6204 1212+0 61.00 WLWLL +0.01 +0.89 0% 10.5
11 BVBIA Washington 5122 1223-11 51.00 WLDDL -0.93 +1.37 0% 13.3
12 Seattle Celtic Green 6123 815-7 50.83 LLDDW +0.43 -0.94 0% 10.3
13 Warriors Sports Academy 5113 818-10 40.80 LDWLL -0.10 +0.61 0% 12.9
14 Seattle Celtic 5104 912-3 30.60 LWLLL +0.74 +1.21 0% 12.4
15 Atletico Azul 6105 819-11 30.50 WLLLL -0.50 +1.37 0% 14.4
16 Atletico Rojo 6006 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.20 0% 16.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.