Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Colorado GU11 · 8 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:30 PM
Fort Collins Soccer Complex, FCSC #9 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.6 against · 1.51 expected points)
| Season so far | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold | Colorado Storm Pre- North |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W | W D |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at Colorado Rush Pre- White | 3–1 vs Real Colorado Pre- Olympico |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.27 | +0.33 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.00 | -0.21 |
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Colorado Storm Pre- North score 2.5/game — well above the league's 1.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 22% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm Pre- North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold – Colorado Storm Pre- North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 34%
- 2nd 21%
- 3rd 13%
- 4th 11%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 5%
- 7th 4%
- 8th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
Position over the season
2 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.05 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 TBD no score posted |
Colorado Storm Central Pre 5th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.70 | 2.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
Colorado Storm Pre- North 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +2 |
Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 2.07 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 09:30 AM |
Colorado Storm South Pre 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Gates South Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM |
Real Colorado Pre- Olympico 8th · 0-0-1 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.69 | 1.87 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Colorado EDGE Pre- United 6th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 12:30 PM |
Pride SC Pre- Copa 4th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.40 | 1.79 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -0.00 | -0.05 | 80% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm South Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Colorado Storm Pre- North | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -0.21 | +0.01 | 77% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White · Sat Dec 5 at Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Colorado Rush Pre- White | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.06 | -0.02 | 54% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado Storm South Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pride SC Pre- Copa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 1 | 1.00 | D | +0.33 | -0.07 | 53% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Colorado Storm Central Pre | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 | 1.00 | D | -0.20 | +0.04 | 39% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado EDGE Pre- United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | -0.03 | +0.05 | 26% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico · Sun Nov 22 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Colorado Storm South Pre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 1 at Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Fri Nov 6 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Real Colorado Pre- Olympico | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.33 | +0.01 | 20% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre · Fri Nov 6 vs Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- United See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.