Utah Surf PRE

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Utah BU12 · 7 teams · Utah Surf (all teams)

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4th

1-0-1 record · 2 played

1.50 points per game

-3 goal diff · 5–8

LWlast 2

17% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4

-0.96 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Wed Oct 28, 05:30 PM

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Utah Surf PRE
4th · 1.50 PPG

La Roca FC Pre South
5th · 1.00 PPG

La Roca FC Utah County Complex, Field 4 ↗

19% 15% 67%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.9 for, 3.5 against · 0.71 expected points)

Season so far	Utah Surf PRE	La Roca FC Pre South
Position	4th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-1	1-1-2
Points per game	1.50	1.00
Goals for / game	2.5	2.8
Goals against / game	4.0	2.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W L	W L D L
Biggest win	3–2 vs NUU Avalanche Pre	7–1 vs NUU Avalanche Pre
Worst loss	2–6 vs La Roca FC Pre North	1–3 at La Roca FC Pre North
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.77	+0.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.96	-0.10

Common opponents: La Roca FC Pre North — we 2–6; they 1–3. NUU Avalanche Pre — we 3–2; they 7–1.

Game plan

Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 05:30 PM at La Roca FC Utah County Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Avalanche Pre- North sit 3rd on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above Avalanche Pre- North on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Wednesday goes…

Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC Pre South game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Surf PRE – La Roca FC Pre South) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.00 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2
Win 2.00 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1
Draw 1.33 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

17% top 4

83% below the top 4

5.4 average finish

1st <1%
2nd <1%
3rd 4%
4th 12%
5th 26%
6th 55%
7th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	La Roca FC Pre North	2.50 (+1.00)	2nd (2.22)	27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2	Utah Athletic Pre	2.33 (+0.83)	1st (2.32)	25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3	Avalanche Pre- North	1.50 (+0.00)	4th (1.46)	A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Surf PRE to La Roca FC Pre South through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

7 favour them

-4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.27 · 2nd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Wed Oct 28 05:30 PM	La Roca FC Pre South 5th · 1-1-2 · GD +3	Away La Roca FC Utah County Complex	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–3	0.71	1.24	Upside
Sat Oct 31 10:30 AM	Utah Avalanche Pre- South 6th · 0-0-1 · GD -1	Away Rockwell Training Facility	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–2	0.98	1.17	Upside
Fri Nov 6 06:15 PM	Utah Athletic Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +12	Away Zions Bank Training Center	●●●●● Very tough	7%	1–4	0.29	1.00	Upside
Sat Nov 21 02:00 PM	Avalanche Pre- North 3rd · 1-0-1 · GD -1	Home Smooth Canyon Park	●●●●○ Tough	36%	2–2	1.25	1.04	Upside
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Avalanche Pre- North 3rd · 1-0-1 · GD -1	Away	●●●●○ Tough	25%	2–3	0.93	1.02	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	La Roca FC Pre South 5th · 1-1-2 · GD +3	Home	●●●●○ Tough	28%	2–3	1.00	1.02	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Utah Avalanche Pre- South 6th · 0-0-1 · GD -1	Home	●●●●○ Tough	36%	2–2	1.28	1.05	Upside
Sat Apr 10 03:30 PM	La Roca FC Pre North 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13	Away far trip La Roca Park	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–4	0.42	0.99	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	NUU Avalanche Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -23	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	4–2	2.13	1.09	Swing game
Sun May 2 TBD	Utah Athletic Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +12	Home	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–4	0.48	1.04	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

La Roca FC Pre North

+13

2.50

WWWWL

-0.25

100%

1.7

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	2–7
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	3–1
W	Wed Sep 30	at	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	10–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	3–1

Next: Sat Mar 13 at La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Apr 3 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Apr 10 vs Utah Surf PRE See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	4–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	3–2	57%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	6–1	95%
·	Sat May 8	at	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	2–3	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Athletic Pre

+12

2.33

WDW

-0.22

-0.33

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 10	at	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	7–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	1–1
W	Fri Aug 28	vs	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	8–1

Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Fri Nov 6 vs Utah Surf PRE · Sat Nov 7 at Avalanche Pre- North See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	3–1	74%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	3–2	65%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	6–1	94%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun May 2	at	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	4–1	77%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	3–2	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Avalanche Pre- North

-1

1.50

+0.89

-0.21

66%

4.1

L	Sat Oct 3	at	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	3–2

Next: Sat Sep 12 at NUU Avalanche Pre · Sat Oct 10 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Athletic Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	4–1	76%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	4–1	84%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 8	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	1–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Surf PRE

-3

1.50

-0.96

+0.27

17%

5.4

W	Thu Oct 22	vs	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	2–6

Next: Wed Oct 28 at La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Oct 31 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Fri Nov 6 at Utah Athletic Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Wed Oct 28	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	1–2	27%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–3	28%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	1–4	11%
·	Sat May 1	at	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	4–2	67%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–4	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC Pre South

1.00

LDLW

-0.10

-0.19

73%

3.9

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	7–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Wed Oct 28 vs Utah Surf PRE · Sat Mar 13 vs La Roca FC Pre North See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	2–1	44%
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	3–2	56%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 8	at	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	4–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Avalanche Pre- South

-1

0.00

+1.29

-0.14

44%

4.6

Sat Sep 12

La Roca FC Pre North (1st)

0–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Avalanche Pre- North · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South · Fri Oct 30 at Utah Athletic Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	1–2	36%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NUU Avalanche Pre (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–3	20%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NUU Avalanche Pre

-23

0.00

LLLL

+0.60

+0.31

7.0

L	Thu Oct 22	at	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	1–7
L	Wed Sep 30	vs	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	1–10
L	Fri Aug 28	at	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–8

Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Avalanche Pre- North · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Mar 13 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–4	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (6th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	La Roca FC Pre North (1st)	1–6	2%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Utah Surf PRE (4th)	2–4	20%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	1–4	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.