Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 6 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.

Add schedule to calendar

2nd

4-0-2 record · 6 played

2.00 points per game

+17 goal diff · 25–8

LWWLWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0

-0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 04:00 PM

Open the match preview →

Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B
2nd · 2.00 PPG

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL
4th · 1.50 PPG

STAR, Field 5N ↗ far trip

75% 12% 13%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.6 against · 2.38 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL
Position	2nd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-2	3-0-3
Points per game	2.00	1.50
Goals for / game	4.2	1.5
Goals against / game	1.3	2.5
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W L W W L	W W L L L
Biggest win	8–1 vs Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green	5–1 at Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green
Worst loss	2–4 at Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A	0–5 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.92	-0.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.24	-0.28

Common opponents: Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green — we 8–1; they 5–1. Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A — we 2–4; they 0–5. San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold — we 6–1; they 2–0. FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue — we 5–0; they 1–5.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL I.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at STAR.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B – San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.14 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.14 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 1.86 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 1.71 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.0 average finish

1st
2nd 96%
3rd 4%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A	2.71 (+0.71)	1st (2.61)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

14 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B to San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.29 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 TBD no score posted	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt	Home Round Rock Multipurpose Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	4–1	2.43	2.06	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL 4th · 3-0-3 · GD -6	Away far trip STAR	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	3–1	2.38	2.10	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A

+20

2.71

WDWWW

-0.66

+0.19

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (—)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (3rd)	2–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B

+17

2.00

LWWLW

-0.24

-0.29

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (3rd)	5–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (—)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt · Sat Nov 14 at San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	4–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue

1.83

WDWLW

-0.56

+0.63

100%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	6–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	0–5
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (—)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs SG1 Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL

-6

1.50

LLLWW

-0.28

+0.64

100%

3.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (3rd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs LTFC Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	1–3	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold

-9

1.00

LLWLD

+0.17

+0.00

5.0

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (—)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	1–6
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green

-29

0.00

LLLLL

+0.62

+0.00

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (3rd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	1–8

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–4	10%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (—)	1–4	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.