Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU11 · 8 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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6th

2-2-2 record · 6 played

1.33 points per game

+6 goal diff · 22–16

DWDLWlast 5

43% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.0

+0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:30 PM

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Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B
6th · 1.33 PPG

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White
3rd · 2.00 PPG

The Lions Club, Field 2 ↗

62% 14% 23%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.8 for, 2.5 against · 2.02 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White
Position	6th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-2	4-0-2
Points per game	1.33	2.00
Goals for / game	3.7	3.3
Goals against / game	2.7	2.7
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W L D W D	L L W W W
Biggest win	12–0 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL	4–1 at Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	1–7 vs Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL	0–10 vs Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.65	-0.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.08	-0.27

Common opponents: Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B — we 1–3; they 4–2. Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green — we 5–3; they 3–1. LTFC Pre- STXCL — we 1–1; they 1–2. Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL — we 1–7; they 0–10. Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL — we 12–0; they 4–1.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 62% / draw 14% / loss 23%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B sit 5th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.
A point moves us above Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B – FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.57 PPG	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 1.57 PPG	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds	6th— holds
Draw 1.29 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Loss 1.14 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

43% top 4

57% below the top 4

5.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 1%
4th 42%
5th 22%
6th 29%
7th 6%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.89 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL	2.40 (+1.07)	1st (2.34)	14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B	2.17 (+0.84)	2nd (2.23)	12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White	2.00 (+0.67)	4th (1.61)	10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
4	LTFC Pre- STXCL	1.86 (+0.53)	3rd (1.83)	9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
5	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B	1.50 (+0.17)	6th (1.47)	A point next game

How the results connect

19 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B to FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us

2 even

6 favour them

+2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 4th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 02:30 PM	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +4	Home The Lions Club	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	3–2	2.02	1.43	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED	Home ASP / CC	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	3–2	1.90	1.49	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red	Home ASP / CC	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	3–2	1.90	1.54	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL

+21

2.40

LWWWW

-0.67

+0.52

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	10–0
W	Fri Oct 16	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (6th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (8th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (4th)	6–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Oct 31 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	3–3	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (—)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (7th)	5–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B

+29

2.17

DWWWL

-0.73

+0.57

99%

1.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	LTFC Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2
W	Fri Oct 9	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	9–2
W	Fri Sep 25	at	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (7th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (6th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–3	47%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	5–2	82%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (—)	5–2	82%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	5–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White

2.00

WWWLL

-0.27

+0.79

44%

4.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (7th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (6th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (—)	3–2	44%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (—)	3–2	44%
·	Fri Nov 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	1–5	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LTFC Pre- STXCL

-2

1.86

LWWDW

+0.57

-0.44

84%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	2–1
D	Fri Oct 9	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (—)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (8th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green · Sat Oct 31 vs BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (7th)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B

-7

1.50

WWLLL

+0.97

-0.76

28%

5.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (7th)	0–5
L	Fri Oct 9	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	2–9
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (8th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–3	33%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LTFC Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B

1.33

DWDLW

+0.08

-0.08

43%

5.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (8th)	12–0
L	Fri Oct 16	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–7
D	Fri Oct 9	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (7th)	5–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White · Sat Oct 31 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED · Sat Oct 31 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	3–2	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (—)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	3–2	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green

-4

0.75

LLLW

+0.48

-0.11

6.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	5–0
L	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (6th)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at LTFC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Oct 31 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	LTFC Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–2	29%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (—)	2–3	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	40%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–1	84%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL

-29

0.00

LLLLL

+1.10

-0.33

8.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (6th)	0–12
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B · Sun Oct 25 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (—)	1–4	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (7th)	1–4	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.