San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU11 · 6 teams · San Antonio City SC (all teams)

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3rd

4-1-2 record · 7 played

1.86 points per game

+12 goal diff · 20–8

LDWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8

+0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 11:30 AM

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San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold
3rd · 1.86 PPG

Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue
5th · 1.17 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 5A ↗

81% 10% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.8 for, 1.4 against · 2.53 expected points)

Season so far	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-2	2-1-3
Points per game	1.86	1.17
Goals for / game	2.9	2.0
Goals against / game	1.1	3.8
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W W W D L	L W L D W
Biggest win	6–0 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL	5–3 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	1–3 at Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red	1–8 at Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.03	-1.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.33	+0.57

Common opponents: Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red — we 1–3; they 1–8. FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue — we 3–0; they 3–3. Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A — we 0–1; they 0–3. San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL — we 6–0; they 5–3.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue concede 3.8/game; worst result 1–8 at Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold – Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.75 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.63 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.8 average finish

1st
2nd 19%
3rd 80%
4th 1%
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red	3.00 (+1.14)	1st (2.89)	14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A	2.14 (+0.28)	2nd (2.12)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

12 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold to Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us

1 favour them

+3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.57 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 TBD no score posted	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt	Home Round Rock Multipurpose Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.11	1.89	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 11:30 AM	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -11	Home ASP / CC	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.53	1.96	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red

+39

3.00

WWWWW

-0.50

+0.15

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	8–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	10–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (—)	8–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	10–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (3rd)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	5–1	88%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	5–1	88%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	4–1	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A

2.14

WWWLW

+0.85

-0.74

100%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black (—)	6–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (—)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (3rd)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A · Sat Nov 14 at San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold

+12

1.86

LDWWW

+0.33

-0.57

100%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (—)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt · Sat Nov 14 vs Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	3–1	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue

1.57

DWDLW

-0.42

+1.02

92%

4.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	5–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black (—)	2–2	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	1–4	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue

-11

1.17

WDLWL

+0.57

+0.26

5.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	1–8
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	1–5
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	5–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	29%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–3	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL

-19

0.86

LLWLL

+0.87

+0.19

5.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (3rd)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	1–10
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	3–5

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–3	16%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	1–3	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.