Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU11 · 6 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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1st

5-0-2 record · 7 played

2.14 points per game

+16 goal diff · 26–10

WWLWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.87 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM

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Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A
1st · 2.14 PPG

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red
3rd · 1.33 PPG

STAR, Field 5N ↗ far trip

72% 15% 14%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.3 against · 2.30 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-2	2-2-2
Points per game	2.14	1.33
Goals for / game	3.7	1.7
Goals against / game	1.4	2.0
Clean sheets	3	2
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	L W L W W	W L D L W
Biggest win	9–0 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red	6–4 at Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black
Worst loss	2–5 vs Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red	0–5 vs Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.05	-0.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.87	-0.85

Common opponents: Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black — we 3–0; they 6–4. Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A — we 2–1; they 0–5. San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red — we 9–0; they 2–0. TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL — we 7–0; they 0–0.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at STAR.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A – San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.25 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.25 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 1.88 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

100% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 100%
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

12 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A to San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

0 favour them

+5.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 3rd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 TBD no score posted	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite	Home Round Rock Multipurpose Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–1	2.50	2.19	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red 3rd · 2-2-2 · GD -2	Away far trip STAR	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	3–1	2.30	2.20	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A

+16

2.14

WWLWL

-0.87

-0.13

100%

1.0

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 17	at	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (6th)	7–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL BU2015/16 (—)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	9–0
W	Fri Sep 18	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite · Sat Nov 14 at San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	3–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A

1.43

LWLDW

-0.34

-0.74

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black (5th)	6–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	5–0
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Challenge United Pre- STXCL BU2015/16 · Sat Nov 14 vs TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL BU2015/16 (—)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–1	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red

-2

1.33

WLDLW

-0.85

+0.68

100%

3.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black (5th)	6–4
D	Sat Sep 12	at	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs SG1 Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red

-23

0.86

LWLLL

+0.35

-0.61

48%

4.6

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	2–9
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL (—)	1–6
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	0–9
W	Sat Sep 19	at	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid · Sat Nov 14 vs Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black (5th)	2–3	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black

-15

0.57

LWDLL

+0.37

-0.92

50%

4.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (6th)	7–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	4–6
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs HTX S Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	3–2	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL

-15

0.57

LLWLL

-0.22

+0.59

5.9

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	0–7
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL BU2015/16 (—)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black (5th)	5–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs AHFC Central Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	1–3	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	1–4	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.62 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.