WNY Flash Rochester Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 10 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)

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6th

4-0-4 record · 8 played

1.50 points per game

+7 goal diff · 21–14

WWLWLlast 5

2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.9

-0.35 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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WNY Flash Rochester Pre
6th · 1.50 PPG

CAU Pre
4th · 2.00 PPG

Glacier Ridge Sports Park, Field #2 ↗

18% 16% 66%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.6 for, 3.0 against · 0.70 expected points)

Season so far	WNY Flash Rochester Pre	CAU Pre
Position	6th	4th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-4	3-1-1
Points per game	1.50	2.00
Goals for / game	2.6	5.4
Goals against / game	1.8	0.8
Clean sheets	2	4
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	L W L W W	W W W D L
Biggest win	5–0 at Upper 90 FC Pre- Red	11–0 at Team Challenger FC South Gold
Worst loss	0–4 at TCFC North Pre	3–4 at North FC Pre- West
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.52	+2.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.35	-0.94

Common opponents: North FC Pre- West — we 2–3; they 3–4. Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre — we 2–0; they 7–0. Upper 90 FC Pre- Red — we 5–0; they 6–0. TCFC North Pre — we 0–4; they 0–0. Team Challenger FC South Gold — we 4–1; they 11–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
CAU Pre score 5.4/game — well above the league's 2.7.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
CAU Pre concede only 0.8/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre, 0–4 at TCFC North Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
CAU Pre have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CAU Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Rochester Pre – CAU Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.33 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 1.67 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Draw 1.44 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Loss 1.33 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

2% top 4

98% below the top 4

5.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 2%
5th 12%
6th 82%
7th 5%
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	2.71 (+1.21)	1st (2.47)	13 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	North FC Pre- West	2.22 (+0.72)	2nd (2.22)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	TCFC North Pre	2.20 (+0.70)	3rd (2.11)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	CAU Pre	2.00 (+0.50)	4th (2.08)	6 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red	1.88 (+0.38)	5th (1.75)	5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

34 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link WNY Flash Rochester Pre to CAU Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

6 even

25 favour them

-3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

22 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +2.61 · 1st hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	CAU Pre 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +23	Home Glacier Ridge Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–3	0.70	1.41	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

+29

2.71

WWWDW

-0.86

+2.15

100%

1.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White II (7th)	7–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	North FC Pre- West (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Team Challenger FC South Gold (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (10th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	WNY Flash Pre- II (8th)	5–0

Next: Sun Nov 8 at CAU Pre · Sat Nov 14 at TCFC North Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	CAU Pre (4th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	2–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North FC Pre- West

+13

2.22

WWDWW

-0.10

—

100%

2.8

TCFC North Pre

+15

2.20

DDWWW

-0.56

+0.29

88%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	4–0
W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (10th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Team Challenger FC South Gold (9th)	7–2
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	CAU Pre (4th)	0–0
D	Fri Aug 28	at	North FC Pre- West (2nd)	3–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Upper 90 FC Pre- Red · Sat Nov 14 vs Cleveland Force Pre- White II · Sat Nov 14 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White II (7th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	WNY Flash Pre- II (8th)	4–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CAU Pre

+23

2.00

LDWWW

-0.94

+0.45

94%

2.9

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (10th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Team Challenger FC South Gold (9th)	11–0
D	Sun Aug 30	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	0–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	North FC Pre- West (2nd)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sat Nov 7 at WNY Flash Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- White II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	WNY Flash Pre- II (8th)	5–1	86%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White II (7th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Upper 90 FC Pre- Red

-1

1.88

WLLWL

-0.02

+1.69

17%

4.9

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	1–3
W	Tue Oct 6	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White II (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	CAU Pre (4th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (8th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (10th)	2–0
W	Fri Sep 11	at	Team Challenger FC South Gold (9th)	2–1
W	Thu Aug 27	at	North FC Pre- West (2nd)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs TCFC North Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

1.50

WWLWL

-0.35

+2.61

5.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White II (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Team Challenger FC South Gold (9th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	0–4
W	Fri Oct 9	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (8th)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (10th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	North FC Pre- West (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CAU Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CAU Pre (4th)	1–3	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- White II

-3

1.17

DLLLW

-0.22

+1.20

7.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	North FC Pre- West (2nd)	2–3
L	Tue Oct 6	at	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	0–3
D	Fri Oct 2	vs	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (10th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Team Challenger FC South Gold (9th)	7–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 vs CAU Pre · Sat Nov 14 at TCFC North Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (8th)	3–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CAU Pre (4th)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre- II

-6

0.60

LLWLL

+0.15

+0.16

7.7

L	Fri Oct 9	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (10th)	8–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	North FC Pre- West (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs CAU Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- White II · Sat Nov 14 vs Team Challenger FC South Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CAU Pre (4th)	1–5	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White II (7th)	2–3	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Team Challenger FC South Gold (9th)	5–2	83%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	1–4	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Team Challenger FC South Gold

-36

0.38

LLWLL

+0.55

-0.70

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	North FC Pre- West (2nd)	3–7
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	1–4
W	Thu Oct 15	vs	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (10th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	CAU Pre (4th)	0–11
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	2–7
L	Fri Sep 11	vs	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White II (7th)	0–7

Next: Sat Nov 14 at WNY Flash Pre- II See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	WNY Flash Pre- II (8th)	2–5	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre

-41

0.11

LDLLL

+0.45

—

10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.