TableChase Clubs

Beach FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Virginia GU14 · 17 teams · Beach FC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 15 minutes ago.
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15th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-14 goal diff · 5–19
LLLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.8
-0.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:15 AM

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Beach FC
15th · 0.60 PPG
at
VA Reign FC
11th · 1.33 PPG

warhill sports complex, Turf 5 ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.9 against · 0.40 expected points)

Season so farBeach FCVA Reign FC
Position15th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-42-2-2
Points per game0.601.33
Goals for / game1.01.7
Goals against / game3.81.2
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless33
Form (recent first)W L L L LD L D L W
Biggest win4–0 at Virginia Valor FC5–0 at Virginia Valor FC
Worst loss0–10 at Richmond United Blue0–3 vs Arlington Soccer Association
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.67+0.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.14+0.29

Common opponents: BRYC Academy — we 1–3; they 1–1. Richmond United Blue — we 0–10; they 0–2. Stafford Revolution — we 0–3; they 4–1. Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL — we 0–3; they 0–0. Virginia Valor FC — we 4–0; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–10 at Richmond United Blue, 0–3 vs Stafford Revolution, 0–3 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 9%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:15 AM at warhill sports complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Villarreal Virginia Academy sit 14th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above Villarreal Virginia Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the VA Reign FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach FC – VA Reign FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.50 PPG		 15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds
Win
1.00 PPG		 14th▲ up 1 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds
Draw
0.67 PPG		 15th— holds 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds
Loss
0.50 PPG		 15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th 19%
  15. 15th 80%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.29 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Richmond United Blue 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.94) 18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Prince William Courage 3.00 (+2.40) 2nd (2.74) 18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Arlington Soccer Association 2.00 (+1.40) 3rd (2.12) 11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Vienna Youth Soccer 2.00 (+1.40) 4th (1.90) 11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Virginia United 1.80 (+1.20) 7th (1.49) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Richmond United Orange 1.67 (+1.07) 5th (1.81) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 BRYC Academy 1.60 (+1.00) 6th (1.66) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 SOCA Elite 1.50 (+0.90) 10th (1.45) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Richmond United Red 1.50 (+0.90) 9th (1.48) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 VSA 1.43 (+0.83) 11th (1.42) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
11 VA Reign FC 1.33 (+0.73) 8th (1.49) 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
12 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 1.25 (+0.65) 12th (1.37) 6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
13 Stafford Revolution 1.17 (+0.57) 13th (1.17) 6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
14 Villarreal Virginia Academy 0.67 (+0.07) 14th (0.60) A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Beach FC to VA Reign FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
20 favour them
-3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 0–5 1–3 1–1 0–3 0–0 0–3 1–4 0–10 2–0 0–0 3–0 14–0 0–9 1–3 1–1 0–4 Beach FC 15th Virginia Valor FC 17th BRYC Academy 7th Great Falls Reston … 12th Stafford Revolution 13th Richmond United Blue 1st Arlington Soccer As… 3rd VA Reign FC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.87 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:15 AM		 VA Reign FC
11th · 2-2-2 · GD +3		 Away far trip
warhill sports complex · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.40 0.57 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:45 PM		 Arlington Soccer Association
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +11		 Away far trip
Virginia Highlands		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.15 0.51 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Richmond United Blue 6600 382+36 183.00 WWWWW -0.63 +0.16 100% 1.1
2 Prince William Courage 5500 183+15 153.00 WWWWW -0.19 -0.07 100% 1.9
3 Arlington Soccer Association 5311 154+11 102.00 WWLDW -0.08 -0.88 80% 3.6
4 Vienna Youth Soccer 6402 1715+2 122.00 LWLWW +0.20 -0.62 38% 4.8
5 Virginia United 5302 1515+0 91.80 LWWWL -0.20 +0.48 8% 9.2
6 Richmond United Orange 6312 148+6 101.67 WLWDW +0.15 -0.55 44% 5.4
7 BRYC Academy 5221 810-2 81.60 WDDLW +0.60 -1.38 15% 7.4
8 SOCA Elite 4202 94+5 61.50 WLWL -0.72 +0.69 10% 8.9
9 Richmond United Red 6231 75+2 91.50 WWLDD +0.01 +0.21 4% 9.1
10 VSA 7313 2413+11 101.43 LWLLD -0.11 +0.52 0% 9.2
11 VA Reign FC 6222 107+3 81.33 WLDLD +0.29 -1.67 0% 8.5
12 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 4121 54+1 51.25 DLWD -0.01 -0.14 1% 10.0
13 Stafford Revolution 6213 109+1 71.17 LWWDL -0.13 +0.16 0% 11.9
14 Villarreal Virginia Academy 6114 716-9 40.67 LLLLW -0.30 +1.23 0% 14.2
15 Beach FC 5104 519-14 30.60 LLLLW -0.14 +0.87 0% 14.8
16 LMVSC 7007 133-32 00.00 LLLLL +0.36 +0.25 0% 16.1
17 Virginia Valor FC 5005 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +0.73 +0.04 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.