Lexington Sporting Club Academy

ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU18/19 · 7 teams · Lexington Sporting (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 10 hours ago.

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3rd

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

58% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 21, 04:00 PM

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Lexington Sporting Club Academy
3rd · 0.00 PPG

Mercury
4th · 0.00 PPG

Deer Park High School, field 1 ↗ far trip

35% 18% 47%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so far	Lexington Sporting Club Academy	Mercury
Position	3rd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	0-0-0
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.0	0.0
Goals against / game	0.0	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	—
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
Mercury average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Deer Park High School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Indy Eleven sit 2nd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above Indy Eleven on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mercury game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lexington Sporting Club Academy – Mercury) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 2	1st▲ up 2	1st▲ up 2
Win 3.00 PPG	1st▲ up 2	1st▲ up 2	1st▲ up 2
Draw 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 2	1st▲ up 2	1st▲ up 2
Loss 0.00 PPG	7th▼ down 4	7th▼ down 4	7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

14% finish 1st

58% top 4

42% below the top 4

4.0 average finish

1st 14%
2nd 15%
3rd 14%
4th 15%
5th 14%
6th 15%
7th 14%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Pride Elite	0.00 (+0.00)	1st (1.41)	Already ahead
2	Indy Eleven	0.00 (+0.00)	2nd (1.41)	Already ahead

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 3rd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 21 04:00 PM	Mercury 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip Deer Park High School	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sat Dec 12 05:00 PM	Racing Louisville Academy 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sun Dec 13 TBD	Tennessee SC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM	FC Pride Elite 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.33	Swing game
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Indy Eleven 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.31	Upside
Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM	Racing Louisville Academy 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.35	Swing game
Sun Mar 21 01:00 PM	Tennessee SC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.39	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM	Ohio Galaxies FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip Athletes in Action Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.37	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	FC Pride Elite 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.35	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Indy Eleven 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.38	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Ohio Galaxies FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.39	Swing game
Sat May 1 TBD	Mercury 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Pride Elite

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Dec 19 at Indy Eleven · Sat Mar 6 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Mercury (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Mercury (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 19 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 6 at Mercury · Sun Mar 7 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Mercury (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Mercury (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Club Academy

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 21 at Mercury · Sat Dec 12 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Dec 13 at Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Mercury (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Mercury (4th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy · Sat Dec 12 at Tennessee SC · Sun Dec 13 at Racing Louisville Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Galaxies FC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Feb 13 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Feb 14 at Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Mercury (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Mercury (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Racing Louisville Academy

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy · Sun Dec 13 vs Mercury · Sat Dec 19 at Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Mercury (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Tennessee SC (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Mercury (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Mercury · Sun Dec 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy · Sat Dec 19 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Mercury (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Racing Louisville Academy (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Mercury (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Indy Eleven (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FC Pride Elite (1st)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.